about overconfident

Overconfidence by experts resulting in disastrous decisions was the theme of a recent presentation by Malcolm Gladwell, and it has obvious implications for the insurance industry.  He pointed to the crisis in the financial industry, Wall Street in particular, as the prime example of overconfident experts getting it wrong, and talked a bit about the demise of Bear Stearns.

Gladwell used a number of other examples to support his thesis, including a study on the change in outcomes when experts are provided with additional information (see here).  Most interesting, a fascinating story about the Union’s defeat at the Battle of Chancellorsville was wound into the presentation (see here and here).

It appears that he has been giving this presentation to a number of audiences, but it does not appear that there is a copy on the web.  Various summaries of his presentation are available (here, here, here & here).  This is a terrific subject for a book, which hopefully will follow shortly