Attitude of Sensex for 2009

sensex would depened on sentiments and demand and supply of funds and papers.would ultimately depends on how much paper our corporate would issue and how much fund is rushing in.technically it shoul d rebound after a correction which is already on.we have already seen a correction of 1300 points from the recent peak.may be after the correction and when the prices look reasonable investors would invest.at present the price earning of sensex is around 19 which is neither over valued or under valued.sensex has historically valued stocks in bad times at around 12 on sensex and 24 on the high during boom times.forward earning are discounted at 16 times..with low inflation interest rates are bound to move southwards which would help in reducing interest component of companies.low inflation means that companies are not in a position to offer price hikes.essentially means they should look at cost cutting to improve profitability.employee cost seems to have stabilished and companies have become catious in giving hikes in salaries.oil price remains a concern.but with india emerging as a oil producing country and if we would find more oil reserves it coul dbe a boon to our economy.so ultimately it is inflation,interest,emplooyees cost..fuel cost..and taxation which would be a huge part of every companies expenditure.along with miscellanious cost..and depereciation.other issues which would decide the sensex is..how obama sneezes..and how our prime minister blinks and thousand other reasons which we atribute each day and find our news papers and magzines and electronic media voicing.at 8 in th emorning it is how the signgapore snx opened..how hangseng and nikkie performed..at 1 in th eafter noon how europeian markets have reacted and opened and till the closing it is a tandem..this happens because every trader is looking for a straw so that he does not get drowned.in th emarket..and when so many people behave in the same fashion and are looking and reacting based on the behaviour of european ,americian and japanies and investor in hong kong.it is a heard mentality and no one really knows the real reason why the share prices fluctuate but we may attribute the reasons to ..sub prime ,fall in th eeconomy of so and so country..etc etc etc ...so many reasons..because electronic channels have to sell news..and since news is available people are reacting and acting on that news..infact there are various channels giving different news and views..and it is how someone react to the news.it is different for different people.and the timing of i watching the news and reacting to the same and you watchingthe same news and reacting or acting on it at a different time.and in different ways.some people have lots of information and lots of analysis of sector..advance tax of the company..issues and how the companies have been working in last few months..monthly sales of some companies is made public.so it would depend how many cars martui is able to sell in a month and hw other car manaufactures fare along withth emajor player.how many two whellers hero honda is able to sell and how many baja auto is selling and how manytvs is selling.it would depend on how much hul.itc ,dabur and other fmcg companies have done in last three months.it would depened how many sales reality companies have been able to report.every day it is news good and bad which defines the prices..some day market react positively even to bad news and some days it performs in negative even t o a great news.it would depend how much fii would invest weather estimated 50 billion would really drop in our markets ..and if that happens we could see 25000 on index..and if they woul dtake out money it could be as bad as 8500 on th e  index may be even worse.or may not be.may be our small investors would have enough to invest when compared to fii..the selling in last four days by fii have taken away 1300 points..so what would decide the trend is how much money investors are pumping into the equity market.it woul ddepend upon how unattractive other investment avenues woul dbe .