There were two issues in this question. The headline asked whether the future of outsourcing jobs in India is at risk(?) while the actual question was about currency management!!
First things first.. US is in recession and there is no doubt aout it. Priority for US administrators is to create jobs or at least not lose them. They have failed in both. Their only concern now is to reduce the rate of losing jobs.
Having said this, the challenge before them is to increase activity level - what everyone calls as stimulus package. Trillions are flowing but I have a feeling their money is being misspent and actual productivity/activity stimulus may not happen much too quickly. Volumes therefore do not increase and thery by jobs also will get affected.
They are after all politicians. They have at least to have a rhetoric. And outsourcing becomes the whipping boy.
If productivity/activity stimulus does not happen, orders flowing down to India will definitely get affected.
Operating costs of US companies do not increase all the more greater if outsourcing is downsized since the government will reduce burden of companies through tax concessions etc.
It is also not end of the road but only a slight decline in outsourcing orders. I appreciate our Sathyam friend (especially) to have said "Cheers".
There is no substitute for knowledge. The BPO infrastructure could be used in many ways and for clients other than US too. We will have a thriving domestic market too in the near future. We need to be innovative. We can offer more and better facilities. We will definitely be sought for then - why US (even their grandfather has to) - but don't make me a Varun Gandhi for this statement.
Coming to the US dollar Vs Euro. Without going into full convertibility issues etc., I would say that we should sell USD and not buy any other currency!! The entire world's savings was there and they failed miserably. If you have money, bring it into India and invest in infrastructure and productive ventures (not blue chip shares - mind you) here.
Your country will then prosper and its currency to will become stronger. You will yourself will then make use of the BPO infrastructure established in India. This is a road to prosperity and a better way of fighting recession.
In the process, however, some outsourcing companies in India will go out of business. Some employees will be laid off. Profitability of most will come down. So be it. After all, when it comes to planning and strategising, our BPOs have failed too!! We were like the brain of the US companies. Could we not have sensed what was happening in the US? Did we not have a contingency plan? Were we not speaking to people there? Could we not sense that something was amiss? We ignored all signals and expected that we will be placed at the pedestal all the time. Our own BPO employees were blind to everything including their investment priorities. They went like a flock of sheep behind many investment options and lost in the process.
I have nothing negative here but am only bringing out the reality. For one, I am far more optimistic about opportunities and prospects in India.