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Created by : Jyoti Rath, Sr. Associate, Barclays  | 08 26 2009 13:26:42 +0000
Industry : Asset ManagementFunctional Area : Recession(Personal Interests)
Activity:  368 views;  last activity : 07 06 2010 20:18:09 +0000

India may have seen accelerating growth in the June quarter thanks to stimulus measures, but drought in nearly half of the country's districts and the global slump could hinder faster recovery.
The country's gross domestic product is estimated to have expanded 6 percent in the quarter from a year earlier and faster than 5.8 percent in March quarter, the median forecast in a Reuters poll of 15 analysts showed.
On Tuesday, Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee said the economy could grow around 6 percent in the year to March 2010, lower than the 6.7 percent growth in 2008/09 and after expanding 9 percent or more in the previous three fiscal years. The prime minister's economic adviser, C. Rangarajan, said the economy could bounce back to 7-8 percent growth in 2010/11.

Is the prediction accurate on the how badly the drought will affect our economy or will it be much worse?

 
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Top Argument
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I am optimistic of India growing at 6% in the current fiscal year..

I agree to all of you , but the rain god seems happy and it is raining well since last few days, if it rains well then there are chance of our achieving 6% growth rate..

Also with the help of the stimulus the recovery has gained some momentum. . .


By Japan Shah, H.O.D, Oxford School of Management  08 29 2009 05:06:32 +0000
 
Top Argument
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I believe the situation will be much worse as already there seems to shortages in the food supplies which would mean the government would have to spend more money on importing food and also provide subsidies to to ensure the people do not suffer under the increased costs, for eg; already we see a shortage of sugar not only in India but the world over as well


By Jyoti Rath, Sr. Associate, Barclays  08 26 2009 13:26:42 +0000
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We are growing in Industrial sector & Infraneeds are much higher than available at present. Basic habit of saving for rainny days is another contributing factor. Rai has been deayed but the quantum is getting mached to the average . Farmer will learn about the practical shift in the monsoon  Pattern & act inline with nature prigdom shift  seasons (Dates).


By Balbir Singh Chadha, Freelancer, Freelancer  | 09 09 2009 05:50:31 +0000
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Of course it can..

The rains are just doing great.. and rest all depends upon the way our Govt moves..!!

It could be Agriculture, Technology or any other.. field now.. there is a wider scope of improvement towards Economic Growth..!


By Satwinder Singh, Program Manager, Confidential  | 09 01 2009 11:35:58 +0000
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if the 3G and wimax spectrum allocation is done professionally,it will surely be a driving force for the economy.There has been too much of hype and the govt has already delayed it.It needs to be done quickly and in a transperant way which will foster india's growth. 


By Shaikh Mohd. Laeeq, Technical Associate R&D , ThinkLABS Technosloutions Pvt. Ltd.  | 09 01 2009 09:16:35 +0000
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As per the government of india announcement given in times of india dated 1st sept 2009, the GDP is already touching 6.1. making india the second fastest in growth after china. this proves that it is possible that we can even go upto 7 by the year end.


By Sumit Jayaswal, Associate/Sr. Associate -(Technical), Cognizant Technologies Solutions  | 09 01 2009 05:25:08 +0000
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India is an agricultural country which is more dependent on the rains for its cash crops. And some regions where there are irrigational facilities they dont hav any problem of water for their crop like the state of Punjab and certain regions of Gujarat. But from few days there has been good rains all over the Indian region which has improved prospects for the new agricultural season and if it rains good it can even reduce the loss caused to certain crops due to long absence of rain.

Yes India could achieve the growth at 6% as there have been reforms made in the new trade policy decalred by the commerce minister and with the dollar appreciating agianst rupee it makes the Indian exports much competitive in the global market there by taking over a share of global trade.


By Darshil , CEO/MD/Director, Darshil Cotton Company  | 08 29 2009 09:06:19 +0000
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During preparation of monthly progess physical and financial ,physical and finncial reports are prepared as per their target, according to financial aim the reports are manupulated and according to the target set every administrative officer is asked to send the reports.

WHAT TO TALK ABOUT 6%, THEY CAN SEND THIS 7% ALSO.ITS ONLY ON PAPER.


By SB DIKSHIT, STATE QUALITY MONITOR, U.P.R.R.D.A  | 09 09 2009 06:06:31 +0000
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An errant monsoon has cast a dark cloud over the economy’s growth prospects. Though the global economy had started stabilizing and early signs of revival were visible in the Indian economy too,delayed monsoons have cast a shadow on agricultural growth...and may affect the overall GDP.


By Paresh Dhembare, Area Sales Manager, ICICI Bank Ltd  | 09 03 2009 17:19:47 +0000
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0

I would not even dare to dream of India achieving economic growth at the rate of 6% in this financial year. This is because we cannot achieve economic growth with prices spiralling skywards, unemployment increasing exponentially and layoffs being the order of the day. The only way of achieving real economic growth is to weed out corruption and reduce the perks enjoyed by the parasites masquerading as our elected representatives. The government also needs to encourage Indians to opt for self-employment and provide employment to millions of people in the process. 


By Anand Sekhar Popuri, Freelance Writer/Business Consultant, Self  | 09 01 2009 14:56:31 +0000
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I think by todays report we have grown slightly above 6% till now. Going by the Harod-Domar growth equation which is growth in y(output) = (1/(capital-output ratio) ) x savings rate. I  believe the past momentum in investment in India will be sustained and even if there is slight dip still we might be able to grow around 6% discounting after the dip due to slow down abroad,


By Mathew Cherian, Research Associate/Analyst, Western Michigan University  | 09 01 2009 13:34:43 +0000
0
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Its all  fabrication game of  the reports,I  experienced during my service period.

Even then I hope the best for our motherland. 


By SB DIKSHIT, STATE QUALITY MONITOR, U.P.R.R.D.A  | 09 01 2009 06:31:45 +0000
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Yes i agree with notion it is quite difficult task to achieve 6% GDP growth rate for 2009-10. If you see the recent history of Indian GDP growth rate, whenever there is bad monsoon growth rate has got reduced 1-1.5% from predicted one. Moreover, govt has announced further extension of tax holidays to export industry which will put its revenues under severe stress and fueling deficit in upward direction.


By kiranksrs , National Head, IRIS SERVICES  | 08 29 2009 05:14:28 +0000
0
0

As per predictions ( on capital flow etc  ) yes possible, but depends on how we deal “poor monsoon” issue. If you allow inflation to creep in then with huge fiscal debt it is not going to happen.


By Padmanabhan R, Articled / Audit assistant, Finance student  | 08 28 2009 20:12:03 +0000
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I think the government's growth will be too slow this time being the worst phase of the economy. Also, as Mr. Sayan pointed out, Unless Govt fudge the growth rate, It doesn't look easy...


By Prakash Khairnar, Sr. Associate, DSP Merrill Lynch  | 08 28 2009 08:01:20 +0000
1
0

I don't think that government will be able to even get to 5% or 5.5% of economic growth this time. As this is the worst phase of the economy and major sectors are still not up to their safest marks, this won't be going to happen for quite some time now, not in the near future. WPI and CPI are coming down but still food and grain prices are skyrocketing, which is a matter of grave concern.

I don't know how will government be able to justify their claims on a growth projection of 6%, when things like macroeconomic and microeconomic factors, essential for the growth are going for a toss....


By Kapil Sharma, Project Leader & Consultant, Outsource Partners International  | 08 27 2009 18:25:00 +0000
1
0

Unless Govt fudge the growth rate: It looks to be difficult :)


By Sayan Chakraborty, Senior ERP Consultant, International Business machines  | 08 26 2009 16:14:55 +0000
2
0

Yes Jyoti, I also think so. The indication of the situation getting worse ha already started getting visible which seems to be, getting worst in the future days.


By Esha Johar, Risk Analyst, Irevna  | 08 26 2009 14:40:57 +0000
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