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Created by : Namrata Pathak, Accounts Manager, American Express  | 06 30 2010 11:16:14 +0000
Industry : Equity Research/AnalyticsFunctional Area : India(Markets)
Activity:  686 views;  last activity : 07 07 2010 05:13:20 +0000

In a recent news, UBS chief has come out and said that Indian economy is more stable than China...I don't know what made him say that, with inflation so high, and with ever increasing oil prices India is a place of uncertainty for many who live in this country, may be for outsiders seeing the green pastures interms of investment, consumption and cheap labour one might get impression that Indian economy is really doing good and the most stable than china, and at times come up with assumptions like these saying it is more stable than china.
http://trak.in/wp-content/uploads/2007/05/windowslivewriter91feb85807ad-13e06india-economy-growth71.jpg

So, what do you think guys, Is Indian economy more stable than China?? Do share your views on this...

 
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I think UBS chief is right here and even though we have high inflation and price rise on many things, but India is least exposed to the external demand such as Europe or US. At the same time, India's economic recovery is much more organic or more sustainable while the other Asian countries such as China, probably the growth was induced by government stimulus. So when the stimulus starts to wind, obviously people's concern was not that the growth is sustainable or not. But how well the market recovered and everything came back to normal so soon....


By Namrata Pathak, Accounts Manager, American Express  06 30 2010 11:16:14 +0000
 
Top Argument
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Its a big joke. Do you think if we are exposed to US and Europe we are in better position than china. Yes, person working in American company can think so. But We are exposed to them means we do what they want us to do. We can not work on our wish and conditions.

China is self sufficient country, which we also can be but most us lacks that will power.

We think modern and latest means what US and Europe do. Though we are in same age and time still we think we are not modern.

None of the US scientist is doing research, they are just rewriting the findings done by our ancestors. Now they are trying to patent yoga. Don't you think thats a tight slap on us.


By Vikram Gaur, State - Convener (IT), Haryana, Bharatiya Janata Party  06 30 2010 15:26:45 +0000
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One study by an international financial organization states that China's economy is a bubble which can burst. WE do not get complete data of china's economy. Our economy is more stable because the growth is strong and sustained. The present Government is very keen to achieve stable and sustained growth this can be seen the various measures the government takes time to time.
By Shashi Kumar U, Manager accounts & commercial, Mazda Concrete Products Pvt Ltd  | 07 07 2010 05:13:18 +0000
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In fact it is true, our economy is stable despite inflation and price increases.I think this is due to the factor that our economy is mixed type enabling to sustain. In case we have capital economy, we will have to suffer. Our investments have been spreaded and diversified in different forms which gives the cushion to absorb/sustain.

Thanks for the referral Ms.Namrata Pathak.

 


By NATTERAJA R. ARIKRISHNAN, GM-Projects, Bentec Electricals & Electronics Pvt. Ltd  | 07 04 2010 08:35:47 +0000
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Hello Namrata, Yes. UBS Chief is correct about our economy is stable than china. of course the growth will happen in the coming years. Our problem is population and the Government decession. If we control population and with the positive decession from the government, we can maintain huge growth. Hope for the best.

K Rajagopalan. 


By k Rajagopalan, Area Manager, Amitex Polymers (P) Ltd.  | 07 02 2010 17:02:22 +0000
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The UBS chief may be right. We are in right direction. But the outcome of price rise and infliation has its own fall outs like the labour in long run will become costly hence the produce will not be cost effective. Today our exports are growing since the labour is cheap once that is removed we will see a dip in exports and in no way imports can be reduced.

At the same time our growth is a real growth but to compare with Chaina I feel it is a little bit difficult since Chain has 3 trillion dollers as forign reserves and that can be used as a stimulas for a long long time to come on top of that if they master english language we will lag much much behind.


By Rathin Deb, Freelance Retail Consultant  | 07 01 2010 06:17:13 +0000
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Are we comparing 17 to 20% of population in India who enjoy middle-income and upper echelon status. Our per capita income of 70% of rural population is still Rs.20 per day. How can we compare our economy with any other country?
By S. Muralidharan, Executive Director, Knowledge Foundation & Campus Around the Corner  | 07 01 2010 06:10:24 +0000
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After the globalreceession which really took hold in the last quarter of September 2008, many thought that the Asian economies will also suffer just as badly as the G3 who are supposedly driving the global economic growth with their demand for goods and services.On the other hand Asia saw a demand growth of 17%, as against a negative growth in Europe and a measly 1% growth in the US.Asia in general and China and India in particular are driving their own economic growth because of domestic demand.Indian economy is better placed than the Chinese one because our banking system is better regulated and healthier, our exchange rate is market driven unlike the chinese one.The inflation is because of the measures taken during the recession like liquidity push and lower taxes.The structural changes taking place like withdrawal of subsidy for petro goods will further push the inflation.However, lower government borrowings on account of structural changes should stabilise the inflation somewhat by the end of 2010.We need more reforms for a stable economy.
By N V Nayak, Faculty, IMA  | 07 01 2010 05:28:42 +0000
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I would say Yes.

Stability is a relative term ; a drunken man who is lying by the roadside is very stable , since he is unlikely to move for quite a few hours ; an officegoer who is running to catch a bus is not stable , since he cannot maintain his speed for too long , either he catches the bus within a few seconds or he misses the bus , and has to wait for the next one.

India has been slumbering for so long that any kind of movement is unnoticed ; China's rate of growth has been incredible ; all its achievement has happened within the last 20 - 25 years. Given this kind of rapid growth , it is inevitable that it will slow down , which is what is happening now. So if you take the next 20 years , India's growth will probably be more than China's. To that extent , India is more stable , as an investment opportunity.

The recent uproar over working conditions in Foxconn is a wake up call ; if more and more workers rebel , then China's advantage as a cheap outsourcing country will evaporate.

Lastly , there is my inherent patrotism ! I very much wish that India outdoes China in the long term.

 


By K. NARAYAN, None, None  | 07 01 2010 04:40:40 +0000
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yes...but government of chin is better in managing it,s economy that India.
By suchita Ambardekar, Director on Board, Vir Rubber Products Pvt Ltd, Vir auto enterprises Pvt Ltd  | 06 30 2010 18:00:02 +0000
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THE KIND OF GROWTH CHINA HAS ACHIEVED DURING THE RECENT PAST IS HIGHLY APPRECIABLE. THANKS TO THE SUPPORT FROM GOVT AND DEDICATED WORKFORCE.IN SPITE OF ALL THE RESOURCES AT OUR COMMAND, MAINLY BECAUSE OF INADEQUATE SUPPORT FROM THE GOVT AGENCIES OUR GROWTH IS HAMPERED.


By s.baalu , Consultant, XYZ LTD  | 07 06 2010 12:53:06 +0000
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Thanks for invite Namrata and regret to sway yet... 

India is hardly building any infrastructure in comparison, so less spending, highest wastage + self accumulation and no risk remains our motto. In any case .01 percent Indians are getting richer which is as well not achieved by china. 


By Ravindra Sharma, Managing Consultant, CHEF-India  | 07 02 2010 08:09:20 +0000
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Under which set of criteria score does the Indian economy become more stable as compared to China? I think on almost all counts our economy is less stable and robust as compared to China's.

The only silver lining is that our potential of improvement is more than China's - considering that even if they are bigger, they are relatively more developed; our gap between what is and what we can be is far larger than theirs.


By Rajib Bose, Top Mgmt Manager/Sr. Manager, Sigma Consultants P Ltd  | 07 01 2010 02:32:38 +0000
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Indian economy is never be strong or stronger then chin.

We are not moving forward to control our currencies or any actions towords the employment or civilized citizen.

China took the great steps to make the Yuan more strong.


By Jyoti CHETANI, Freelancer, Equity Research/Analytics  | 06 30 2010 18:53:48 +0000
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China is our neighbour, we share common boarder and both of us are in Asia with almost simila weather, tradition and philosophy.

UBS .. chief need not bother to differenciate these two countries, commonly known as "Chindia". To elaborate more, BRIC countries are going to lead the growth of the world right now.

All we know that our economy is more stable than the USA, the Europe or Greece.

We are not going to buy the 'version' of the West about India and China. May anybody convey this to UBS/ G-8, G-20 and or all World Bodies  ?


By ASOKE KUSARI, Domestic Private Banking-Executive/Manager, A large leading PSU Bank - India  | 06 30 2010 18:27:55 +0000
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