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Topic : 2009 General Elections : Key Issues
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Industry : BankingFunctional Area : India(Markets)
Activity:  361 views;  last activity : 07 06 2010 20:18:09 +0000

Inflation in India is declared today as 2.43 which was above 12 few months back. This value is the lowest after June 2002. Is it good for economy to have inflation at such lower rate?. Please give your views.

 
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Top Argument
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ofcourse yes, after so many years one is seeing so much decrease in fuel prices, which in turn is leading to decrease in various other products also.


By Sandeep Goyal, Client Servicing/Key Account Manager, Yes Bank  03 13 2009 14:45:26 +0000
 
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Well, common perception from layman's oint of view, is that lower the inflation, the better. However, coneteporary situation both macro and micro level as well as global panic defies the logic. First, from economic point of view, the difference between rate of inflation and rate of interest should not bemore then 5%. Alarmingly, the difference is too high. It is irony andbig impediment to the economic well-being from structural growth point of view. Secondly, the inflation figures appear tobe illussory. On the grass root level, where it should matter, to the ultimate consumer, the the dramatc climb down from 12+% to 2+% is not visible. The prices of essentials commodities continue to be heart-burning to them.  More importantly, the dramatic reduction is because of massive fall in prices of fuel under the control of the government. We are in election mode and so government in order to gather vote catching exercise, has substanitially redused the fuel prices. But is it sustainable? And how do we corelate the crunch of liquidity, the loss of jobs, the panic syndrome on one side and abnormally low rate of inflation? Something is terribly wrong somewhere....   


By HASMUKH GANDHI, FILM AND TV PRODUCER, PROFESSIONAL  03 21 2009 13:45:57 +0000
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If increase in inflation is proportionate to growth in GDP index, it is a welcome phenomena.

In a healthy economy, 12% to 15% growth in industries can be considered satisfactory. (By Growth, I mean the business growth, not artificially boosted share price.) 

For an investor, 15% percent growth will double his money in 5 years.

For providing enough liquidity to boost economy and to encourage investment in equities, the bank shall adopt 4% to 5% SDR and 6% to 7% SLR which will give the banks enough margins.

To achieve this, government shall exercise very strict control on the stock market in the listing parameters, pricing of IPO, and artificial running up of share prices, if necessary by prefixing the margins. Benefits to investors shall be in the form of bonus shares and dividends.

Had there been such controls, India would not have been a victim of this economic fiasco caused by unbridled economy in US, because, there is no major change in the fundamentals in most of the Indian industries; (except perhaps in the outsourcing industry), the boosted up capital was wiped out by the FIIs putting the interest of the local investors in jeopardy. Resultant panic pushed down the share prices and dried up liquidity forcing the industrialists to dump their business plans. The responsibility of bringing such a situation shall squarely lie on the Industrialists including the banking industry and the Government.     

The media and their so called analysts who provoke the investors with unrealistic valuations and untardy forecasts are also partially responsible for the economic pain and suffering of the of the retail investors.  The traders always are capable of fishing in troubled waters and most of them could have must have made fortunes out this.   

Having the damage done, at the least reduction of inflations should have reflected in reduction of prices of essential commodities, which would have given a boost to the economy. Government need to move in with strict action to controls unbridled greed of profiteering industrialists and the middle men who do not allow prices to go down.

Deflation due to limitation in money supply reduces the purchasing power, which in turn  will adversely affect the economy.   Government shall enforce strict measures to overcome such a situation, even at the risk of inflation going up moderately.

In an healthy economy, industry should grow in a progressive rate, inflation shall move up in proportion to the growth, and bank rates shall move down wards, to keep the liquidity in tact.   


By P. Abraham Paul, MD FCOMNET  | 03 22 2009 18:03:07 +0000
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Considering the consumer, the answer is 'yes' because the prices are coming down.


By Shaju George, Facilities/Construction Manager, IBS Software Services (P) Ltd  | 03 12 2009 10:28:57 +0000
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INflation rate is low means adverse effect on economy, which is cycle. During such a recession and price drop in fuel impose on industry to sell their material at cheaper rate. Basically industries are bound to sell the material at low price to maintain their life cycle. It is something like stock clearing sell for liquidation purpose. 

It is not due to better Govt. policies or due to high production rate. It is a unbalance of supply and demand.

It should be maintained at a level of 5.5 to 6%, not below this or not above this range, will show the health of economics.


By Nitin M Aras, Head/VP/GM-Tech. Support, ODTIN Food Solutions Pvt Ltd  | 03 21 2009 14:02:52 +0000
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Considering the 20% Cut in Fuel Price It Should Be Negative ie -10 to 15%.Then Only it Will Be Justified.Rate Of Cooling Down Should Be More.Inspite Of Recession & Rate Cut In fuel Price This is not Justified.


By Suraj Sinha, Propritor, SRS Structure  | 03 13 2009 19:20:36 +0000
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this much variation is not good for our nation. inflation might have increase or decrease gradually. otherwise ?


By Pandiarajan , Risk Analyst, christian medical college  | 03 13 2009 12:17:00 +0000
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