Is New Product Launch a Gamble?

Yes.. I agree.. a product launch is a science... Risk is something that is involved in all types of investments. No matter whatever it is. If one starts playing with risk then anything will become a gamble... To bring some certainty in decisions, people do research... they study the existing market conditions and the scope of change in the current environment viz a viz the ROI. As far as market sentiments are concerned... no one can predict, control or foresee the probable changes and this risk is basically same for all... all one can do is keep backup plans ready... But I do not totally deny from that it is a gamble... the unpredictable market behavior is a big risk, it cant be controlled nor be prevented... In this way playing with money can be considered as a gamble....

New product launch has many attributes associated with it. Before launching through market study has to be conducted in terms of demand, suitability, target customers, competitors and differentiate with unique features. It has inputs and outputs with lot of insights so definitely it is a science.

Any new Product to be launched should be supported with advance full throttle Market Research, pragmatic identification of the needs & desires of the consumer, followed by inclusive product development, supported by launch of mega Ad campaign and finally sail onto an aggressive marketing strategy...

Aggressive Marketing activity should be continued but simultaneously accompanied with compilation of market feedback to identify our strengths and weaknesses as compared to our competitors. This will help and guide in making necessary corrections in our Product development and Marketing strategies.

I can say with confidence after having been personally involved in many successful product launches in the country, that this approach is purely scientific as it will ensure comprehensive and practically positive results...

Its definitely a science, if one is proeprly planned and prepared and knows what to do, then it becomes science not gamble.

I would definately vote for science. There is no gamble in new business product if we have really accounted the loss and gain before the product launch. I would again say its duty for sales and marketing guy to show the added value to the customer.

"Every product has its buyer", but one has to find an appropriate buyer. A new invented product also has a buyer but u need to post to the world why they need that product. So according to me it is a science for the new product which is at its pioneering stage in the niche market.

Where as it is a gamble to launch a common product which is already has a lot of competitors in the market, as the margins in all the industries have reduced and a new product has to incurr a lot of markleting expenditure in the low margin market so sustainability is an issue.

Product launches may be a gamble in India where the marketing budget is very low. Here we don't spend any money for developing a product that fit people need or purse. Then if it fails we attribute it to gamble.

Let me go back to to the 80's, Funskool developed a toy and the development cost was $850 mn. It was manufactured and sold withing weeks it was a hit but some kid swallowed a loose part on the toy and died and to avoid further consequences they withdrew the product from the market. All the costs got sunk.

Abroad it is a science, they spend billions of dollars for developing a product and do all sorts of gamut to market it so that the money spent on the products don't go to waste.

Probably in the long run we can expect r&d's for our companies that develope products, more rational pricing and a well articulated economy where product launches wil never be a gamble but a science.

Everything has its own value, I do consider that New Product launch can be compared with the evolution theory "there is gradual and continuous changes". Previously it was slow and gradual but human brains are so fast that they have solutions for every possible problem and can foreseight the future.

It is Science as we are not/never satisfied with what we have and always look ahead for the possibilities of improvement. Although when it goes to the Business the value of changes is calculated in terms of the profit done by the company or organization.

But still I feel that even though in the Business sence companies do take calculated risk to make the product successful and to survive in the market.

Hope most of us agree with my views

dear sir

new product launch is not at all a gamble.taste development is ain born quality in human beings.we just have to give them the taste in a proper way.

Manish,

You didn't answer the question, thats your opinion whether the space missions that fail are Sceintic in nature or are pure gamble??

To take this analogy further each product launch is an scientic venture as is the case with launch of satellites because it encompasses and entails lot of prior research and statistical analysis.

Just like man does not have a through knowledge of everything and a lot of learning happens through experience hence their is an inherent unknown factor called as risk in each and every venture.

Since science does not have where withall to eliminate the risk completely and absolutely but has mechanism to reduce the risk and its factor. Same is the case with product launch where lot of factors are taken into consideration and risk analysis is done but still there are certain factors that are beyond risk mitigation steps. Hence Product launch is as scientific in nature as that launching of a space mission or satellite.

Hence your terming it as a gamble is absolutely, totally,completely out of place.

To conclude " If man would have known everything then he would have been God, The Almighty" but that not true.....

I hope you got the point....  

Hey manish,

Don't get personal as everybody has right for his/her view point just like you.

It does not leave a good taste when one hears to comments like that of yours regarding not understanding the exact meaning of the question, if you feel so then why don't you elucidate more?

To just add to your point of science being 100% then was just wondering the various space missions as well satellite launches that failed from their desired objectives should they be treated as scientic missions or gamble??

Hi Manish. No personal offesnse here but this is FIRST time I'm seeing someone in my life who has opened a NUMERO UNO Brand in Rural area w& that is also cause of SOCIAL WORK? Sorry but this is something totally out of the world & unbelievable.

Above all, your argument do not have any evidence & your says are out of area -NUMERO UNO shop for social work. I'm putting FULL STOP here. By the way let me know your NUMERO UNO shop address in Private communication so I can come over & learn this new kind of social work.
One more point, if you have noticed you are Alone who is supporting GAMBLE side, check it. Other who is on Gamble side are also on Science side as they are clear what they are talking about.

Product launches are not gamble as long it is studied from inception from product research, to design, to test marketing and to rolling out. You can use all of them or some in combination as required for each product.

Product needs are picked from the environment, conveyed to the management who studies the feasiblity and conveys the product functions to the R&D who creates the prototype and sellable version. Test markets it through marketing gets the feed back. Or you can forfeit test marketing and roll out the product from one center to the next covering the whole region.

Hi Manish. Can you explain your own experience with NUMERO UNO Franchise?

Have you done any anylisis of earnings, loss & profits? Sales forcasting, possible damages etc.
If you have done this before taking this Business, I think you are forcefully on wrong side of Debate.

New product launch is carried out, after extensive research on product performance, it's sustainable capability to return the cost and market demand assessment. For a success of any product launch, it is essential to have a "Exit Plan" to protect the interests of organization, in case anything goes wrong. This safety feature takes out "gamble" element from it.

But a product launch, if taken out without any product and market research, purely based on instincts, will be definitely a gamble. 

Hi Manish,

Wanted to ask you a question, when you are driving back home there are a lot of risks involved , so do you think thats a gamble as well.

The feeling that I get is that all risks are termed by you a gamble.

As far as the game of gambling goes the risk mitigation avenues available is limited or non-existent so there is an equal probability of winning and loosing which is not in the case of product launch the reason is

" A product launch takes into account all the material risks including timing and has got steps and processess in place to reduce the last minute glitches and hitches"

So equating all risks to that of gamble is like saying our day to day existence is like a toss of coin...

Hi Manish. Thanks for reading me. If Business is NOT success this does not mean its a Gamble. Can you prove it? If you know Brand name TAMARIIND (tell me who is Brand owner), Model for the Brand was HRITIK & Brand got failed. Let me know why. This is the answer for your Q & why I'm supporting SCIENCE factor here.

Dear Mihir, this is you are talking about some UNWANTED cercumstances for Launching. We are talking about the Launching part not AFTER launching part nor BEFORE. I'm sure Mr. Ratan Tata must has very strong calculations about what he is doing.

Hi Manish. NOT agreed with your debate. Launching is also a Science, do you know about Pre-research about any product launch? Not even a product, creative agencies researched almost every part of the Product tp launch a product - Usage, Demographics, Price, Packaging, Colors, Target market. This is not only for the product , agencies also research TV ADs, Print ADs before going to mass.

So I do not believe that its Gamble, in Gamble nothing is sure but science is sure like H2O (Hydrogen + Oxygen = Water), if you Gamble & try to mix something, which may BLAST & you are gone.

Every NEW start, launch & venture is a Science, if its not we do not require MBA, Branding, Art & Design professionalS to work for it. I have seen movie "21", its about GAMBLE but with Science, that's why they were able to make lots of Money.

I personally believe that LUCK (Gamble) is part of everything we do, even after matching Kundlis Marrieges go for Divorce, but Brand/Products can not depends on LUCK, it has to get served using Science & small part of Gamble will help.

Someone  said " Purusharth aur Naseeb sath chalte hai"

in addition to " 21" , makarand bhai kindly advise all of us to watch

naseerudin shah's " game "

americans : their movies are  cut & paste

indians : " we are anupam kher types " watch " ek doctor ki maut"

I would advise all of you here to watch a film called 21! It is a film where a group of high school students with a help of a smart math professor manipulate black jack tables! But they can do it only after a huge amount of RESEARCH has gone into it!!

Its a very interesting film and maybe if people here are serious about a NEW launch being a gamble, it would add a new dimension to their thought process

I certainly agree with Mr.Jairaj shyam.Creating a new product is basically innovation which is needed to survive in today's market.And its definitely not a gamble if proper research and development of the product is done before launching it in the market.

Hi Gaurav,

When do you think a new product/service is launched, only when there is a gap identified in the  need wants and demand of the potential client segment after a thorough research known as Market research.

Does the market research before the launching of the Product/service not identify the potential risk vis-a-vis customer behaviour/socio-economic factors, it definitely does.

Now coming to economic conditions it is cyclical in nature, so hence timing is of paramount importance as because there has been a number of scientic discoveries and inventions but that has to be satisfy certain needs of the customers segments so as to warrant a commercial launch as a product.

To answer the launch of microwave ovens in 1980's micro wave was discovered earlier but the commercial need for its use for cooking was realised in 1980's.

Hummer the legendary brand of 4 wheels drive has been with US army for long but the commercial Launched happen when it was identified that a segment of customer wanted to use it for city drive.  

So by equating product launch to gambling if we mean to say that it is blind game where youy happen to win or loose is far fetched as it requires a lot of ground work and analysis.  

Gambling is TAKING CALCULATED RISKS at winning! You cannot take potshots at winning at all. It has to be a studied approach with appropriate research (product, technical etc), customer feedback via market research and a business plan with communication in place!

How can you gamble with such a thing! I mean today people are banning sonography services to determine the sex of the baby!! We cannot do that, its vital to understand and then accept and then nurture!

certainly it is not a gamble.launching a new product is like creating a new life.sustainability lies with the process/product.one should think that it is the accountability of the product that counts rather than how it is launched or why it is made!!. comming to debacles, entire team which made the product should be blamed and not end user.today we are living in a world where customer is "THE KING".

Even babies, born of capable parents have a secure future! I don't really believe that all people who launch new products are novices, that the introduction of a new product should be percieved as a gamble. As Mr. Bhave points out, there is good amount of research conducted by knowledgable professionals before a product is launched. Yes, it will be a gamble if the required exercise, prior to the launch is neglected or conducted by amateurs.

The core behind the launch of any product and service is the Need of that Product/service by a segment of the population.

Once that core need/want/demand is identified and a suitable solution or waqy to fill up that gap by way of product/service is designed then comes the stages of Product launches campaign, promotion, delivery models.

The entire business case of a product launch depends on the robustness of the research that enables in identifying the need want and demand. 

Its definitely a science. There is a need for a huge exercise of R&D even before you put your finger on the attributes of the product! Competition, its standing in the market and the advantages that the competition has in the said sector are of vital importance!

The product has to be tested through market surveys to get actual consumer feedback. Then it undergoes R&D again based on the feedback to inculcate any changes that need to be done! I mean its a complete process. Also, fallback needs to be in place even before the product is launched because heaven forbid if somewhere logistics fail for some reason then where do you go??

It is not just a launch its like a baby being born and then you have to ensure and secure its future!

Yes...before it used to be a gamble...but now with so many studies and strategies...one can nuliify the gamble status for the new business...so vijay what sort of approach would you go for a new business???...i think we can create a idea contest based on this...

Yes I do believe product launching has become an art which can make or break a product. And developing new products requires effective ways to minimize risk and maximize gain but we have to use new ideas (which is a gamble in some way) need to be thoroughly tested and evaluated to reduce risks and which helps in fine-tuning the marketing mix before launch........