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Created by : Esha Johar, Risk Analyst, Irevna  | 08 20 2009 08:24:09 +0000
Industry : Equity Research/AnalyticsFunctional Area : India(Markets)
Activity:  246 views;  last activity : 07 06 2010 20:18:09 +0000

Until a few weeks ago, everyone was waiting for the first quarter results of companies. Then suddenly the news of a likely (at least a partial) drought started coming in, sending everyone into a sombre mood. This is despite the fact that the corporate performance has exceeded all expectations.  The mood was lifted dramatically when data showed that industrial production had picked up. Then again the market fell in tandem with Shanghai, only to rise again on Tuesday.

There is complete chaos here, is there a method to the Dalal street madness?

 
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esha and japan shah.

the rational behind your assumption are not correct.results are good just from the point of view of profit,but they showed a decline in sales to the extend of 3.7%,the import and export have been declining,

the market was over bought and the prices were quoting at above 21PE to the trailing twelve months earnings.

the oil is been fluctuating.72 to 67 and 67 to 72 oil companies have a heavy weightage on index almost around 30%.there is a diret link to the margins of oil refiner and oil price and hence profits.

the rupee is volatile and has risen to 49 from 47 levels this would make your valuation differ.the fluctuation gives rise to arbitrage opportunity over different exchanges in the world.hence the FII have been selling.

the dividend payout adjustment is almost around 2.5 to 3 percent which happen to fall in this season almost all companies payout dividend in this season.

so there is a method to the way the market works and in this days of software dirven trading all this calculations are taken care of automatically by software and trades executed.


By sandesh saboo, Research Associate/Analyst, saboo associates  08 20 2009 10:48:07 +0000
 
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Yes Esha very true, the people are just blindly following what is told to them.

Well stated that inspite of the very good results of the coprorate, good set of economic data, the europe & Japan coming out of recession, things were pretty good, suddenly some one starts talking about the drought, deficit of rain (which i believe is true to some extend), but the complete picture of drought will come with the end of September.

I belive that if we know the game of this madness then we all will be welathy, this is a market where your predictions will always prove wrong, we do not know where it is heading, neither it is breaking the lows, nor the highs..

The markets in the past few days have confused us to core/


By Japan Shah, H.O.D, Oxford School of Management  08 20 2009 08:45:09 +0000
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Definitely there is a method for this madness. people feeling of no logic is may be because of presence so many unpredictable variables that drives the sensex movement.


By Surendra Nadh, Research Associate/Analyst, Prayag Consulting  | 09 08 2009 04:45:04 +0000
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The mad ness happens always because basics are forgetten and madness in people gets started when they get caught between FEAR & GREED.


By Shailesh Vadalkar, Business Analyst, Al Rostamani Pegel LLC  | 09 03 2009 11:06:38 +0000
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Arguments given by sandesh are quite reasonable and acceptable but regarding madness of dalal street I would like to say that a mad person can be very much irritated and furious at any good /bad news/thinking.


By SB DIKSHIT, STATE QUALITY MONITOR, U.P.R.R.D.A  | 09 02 2009 02:12:25 +0000
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I agree with you sir. The people are not seeing the real facts and analyse the thing they juat belive what is told to them.


By Mohammadarif.A.Shaikh , Consultant, My Learning Centre (CALORX)  | 09 04 2009 05:21:14 +0000
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It is like a durnkard walking........there is no logic or basis for fall or raise in the sensex


By Mallikarjuna Gupta Bhogavalli, Sr. Product Manager, Oracle India Pvt Ltd  | 09 03 2009 10:06:53 +0000
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Of course FII are strong market players and the market always move in tandem.

 But heavy selling by them can seriously affect the country’s economic balance. A developing nation like ours should always be careful about this when going for heavy foreign exposure in balance sheet.


By Padmanabhan R, Articled / Audit assistant, Finance student  | 08 22 2009 18:02:53 +0000
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A large chunk of turnover in Dalal street comes from FIIs, then the FIs and Mutual Funds and then HNIs. These investments are dictating the rates of stocks in Dala street. I hope there are no methods available for a common investor to track this madness. Of course, it can't be called as a madness, since it intricately depends on research and analysis.

Here originates the fundamental Investment. You adapt your own philosophy of investing and follow it, in order to 'tame' the Bulls or Bears of dalal street. Your philosophy may follow long term, medium term, short term strategies, value investing, IPO investment, Auction trading, future and options, etc etc. Those who do not have patience or time to follow regularly, will follow mutual fund route or portfolio management route. Perhaps these are the available methods available to tackle the so called 'madness of Dalal street'.


By taranath joshi, DGM Operations, EOL,  | 08 22 2009 15:03:31 +0000
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I agree with Mathew. The market now is based on how the FII's buy and sell. So they buy and sell in different places accordingly redeploying in different markets.


By Jyoti Rath, Sr. Associate, Barclays  | 08 20 2009 11:50:24 +0000
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I feel the state of the market now is based on how the FII's buy and sell. Their operation depends on allocation of resources on an international portfolio. Their decisions are made on thresholds dictated by their policies and software. So they buy and sell in different places accordingly redeploying in different markdts. So it can cause confusion somethimes.


By Mathew Cherian, Research Associate/Analyst, Western Michigan University  | 08 20 2009 10:25:22 +0000
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The market is on a flimsy ground. There is no firmness at all as everyone is sitting on the fence. Everyone wants to buy and sell simultaneously. That is why there is so much volatility. Investors are better off sticking to their investment decisions, rather than changing them according to market mood. I always feel we make money in this market only on our conviction, not by following people's recommendations blindly.


By Esha Johar, Risk Analyst, Irevna  | 08 20 2009 08:24:09 +0000
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