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Created by : Abhay Dodiya, B.Com. M.B.A.(Fin.)  | 05 30 2009 04:45:43 +0000
Keywords : jobs recession market
Activity:  1114 views;  last activity : 07 06 2010 20:18:09 +0000
 
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After long battle with recession i guess it's end of recession for india as such. Having stable governement in place coming up with so many pending agenda to boost our economy can help us to improve. As Sir Mark Mobius of franklin templeton said in his interwiew to Udyan Mukhrejee. He expressed his view towards indian economy as it stand second among BRIC country and he also mentioned that it's unlikely that market will chase Old Low again. Also the return from the market would be high as compared to other developed market. He also consider indian market as not among the cheap market amongst the emerging market.


By Abhay Dodiya, B.Com. M.B.A.(Fin.)  05 30 2009 04:51:58 +0000
 
Top Argument
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I think recession for India has still not come to an end yet. Untill and unless investor and consumer confidence strengthens in the country we cant say yet it is an end of recession. Why we judge the econimic condition by looking at the the equity market, it is a subset of an economy it doesnt replicate the whole economy. To get into the depth of the economy one should read the consumer confidence index, industrial output numbers, exports figures, percapita income, etc and many other factors to be looked on.The major reason India is feeling the heat of recession inspite of having such a large consumer base is because the installed capacity of the industry output is much higher or can say just double of what needed to fulfill the domestic demand, where as the extra capacity was utilized for exports but during the global economic slowdown, where the global demand is drying up it is difficult for the Indian companies to compete with the global prices as the higher installed capacity adds to the overall fixed cost which reduces the benefit of " economies fo scale "

No doubt India has a large consumer base but directly on indirectly our country is dependent on the US economy. Directly for some products and service exports we are dependent on US like IT and financial Outsourcing. Where as Indirectly too we are dependent on them for example : India export huge quantity of cotton to China and not to US, but US being the largest importer of textile apparels it is the biggest buyer for China, now with the recession hitting the US consumer and spending Index the US demand for textile apparel has hit which has directly affected the consumption of cotton in China which ahs directly affected the demand of Indian cotton in China.


By Darshil , CEO/MD/Director, Darshil Cotton Company  05 30 2009 08:36:46 +0000
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except  airlines and i.e too because of open competition,there was no recession in India and if it was there ,now no more.


By SB DIKSHIT, STATE QUALITY MONITOR, U.P.R.R.D.A  | 08 02 2009 18:25:48 +0000
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Hmm you cant say it is end of recession bcoz u can only be able to say end of anything wen u see that something else(counter part of it)  is growing..there is no growth or hiring still which can show that recession has come to and end. Still ppl are being laid off.........employees on bench are scared..so wen the end to recession comes it will be loud and clear. Ya u can say that there is a stagnancy in recession ..for the time being


By Rajani Sharma, Team Leader -(Technical), Collabera  | 06 01 2009 06:39:04 +0000
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What is a Recession???

India has:

Stable Government!!!;

Infrastructure projects that are "booming";

Banks and Financial Institution that are on the up-swing;

Cut-backs, and trimming of "FAT" that have reduced job-losses;

What more???

Keep an eye out for the EVIL ones
--- CORRUPTION, China (Pakistan-abbettor), Pakistan (Kashmir, militants, "Mumbai Burning ..."), caste-religious fervor!

Build further! Don't slacken.....

 


By Dominic Fernandez, Partner/Principal/VP, Computants Inc  | 05 30 2009 23:25:07 +0000
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u r right rohit jee i feel recession is the ghost of western countries.. yes its simply teaches alot us and clear many new definition to us which are only in books for studies of mangement....


By varsha , Head/VP/GM-Quality, frac  | 05 30 2009 16:31:12 +0000
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hi Rohit, i too agree with u for saying this is not the end of recession period in India.but some times i think this recession has done some thing good to us, in the sense, all organizations are involved in lot of cost reducing measures and spending less on all types of presentations and parties/galas etc.,


By jairaj shyam prasad, Production Manager, BOSCH Ltd  | 05 30 2009 11:11:48 +0000
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you can't say it is the End of the recession, still there should be more confidence shown by the people towards it, still there are news about cutbacks, though the market is doing well at the moment and a stable government to go with  is surely good signs, but some more time to go when we can say yes recession is over.......


By Rohit Khanna, Project Leader/Managing Consultant, Accenture  | 05 30 2009 07:30:34 +0000
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Yes i agree that this is the end of recession for india due to the following reasons we have just seen bottom of share market, so now its time to move up, upon that india has got a stable gov. who is definatly going to boost indian economy, apart from it if we look at our country lots of young entrepreuners are coming up who are on their way to create History + Global markets seems to be stable.


By Shashank Gupta, MBA ( Marketing )  | 05 30 2009 05:26:56 +0000
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It is not even started in India. With increasing tax collections and government borrowing aided by tall claims by which corporates raise funds has just started the creation of INDIAN BUBBLE and it will explode one day - may not be soon but it will with no long term strategy and planning.


By Prasad PN, Zonal Sales Manager  | 11 08 2009 10:57:18 +0000
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Do we have the RECESSION anytime??

Well technically NOT as GDP growth was always more than 5% for us.. then the question should be will the impact of US Recession will last further for India??

My answer is no. Unlike Japanese or chinese economy, we do not driven by global cues by a large extent. Yeah there were impacts, particularly in service and export oriented textile sector, but even that impact wasn't so severe.

The job losses and unemplyment was a precautionary major from the employers due to lack of clearity about the future and demands. 

The biggest advantage of our economy is the internal consumption and stringent regulations. Thus i dont feel we entered into recession at any point of time during the time frame


By Raj Deepak Singh, Institutional Derivatives Anslyst, karvy Stock Broking Ltd  | 09 16 2009 17:33:14 +0000
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Fear of recession in the market was at its peak, and hence a temporary tumble. In the midst of this arguement, yesterday again the market (sensex) climbed to 15378.96, a 13 month's high. This means market is still in mood.

I fully agree with Mr. Sandesh. Companies like Tata Steel (retained 16/share dividend), Infosys (showed growth better than expected), TCS (declared bonus). There is no fear of future for the companies, which means recession was a hoax.

We did not feel the heat. In fact other countries felt it. Banks tumbled. JLR support for Tatas was in doldrums. Software companies slowed down their expansion spree in foreign countries. Even president of america threw bad remarks on software companies, which is very rare. (Normally bad remarks are coming out only during a fear).

Meanwhile, in India, I think, recession is yet to start. Prices are at their almost peaks. Expenditures are being cut by companies. Projects are being cancelled or rescheduled. Cautiousness is seen everywhere. This is normally a symptom of arriving recession and also a safeguarding against it. Foreign contries would start dumping commodities or goods through their subsidiaries. Small investors would start liquidating their deposits where the fear starts and end up with tightened money situation, a recession.


By taranath joshi, DGM Operations, EOL,  | 08 02 2009 09:34:23 +0000
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hey guys the question here is when did we enter recession.i think we have entered in to recession in the current quarter,this is the first quarter which is showing sign of drop in sales.5% drop in sales is huge.for the first 800 companies that have declared results.companies have managed to post good profits almost15% growth in the first quarter for the 800 companies which have already declared results.

banks are back on th e advertisment hoardings saying we are willing to lend.

they have reduced interest rates.a sector wise analysis is what is called for,which sector is not doing well we probably cannot generalise there is a recession in the over all environment.FMCG have grown by 13% in sales.probably big budget things have got some hit.mor eso in real estate.well the way the real estate companies have raised the real estate prices 3 folds in 3 years it was bound to happen.how many people are there who could afford such high cost housing.

there is a small chance that we would come out of recession just because of the stock markets.companies are able to get funds and tie there funds requirement.just look around and see many companies have raised money and are talking of huge projects..for example reliance power has tied up 20000 crores of debt and have declared financial cosure for a few of there projects.it woudl end up in creating some jobs.

tata steel,tata motors,tata power ,whent ahead and issues gdrs,sterlite made a gdr issue,hindalco is doing it.that shows business optimisuim,many qips are getting oversubcribed.this to me is news on new enthusiam and news that a few jobs would be created.and business are looking ahead with optimism.

may be salaried class had to face some problems and the rises and promotions which were coming just like that today needs a lot more hard work.

stock market world over are back to running towards a new high everyday from the recent fall.it means the liquidity in the markets have improved and the circulation of capital is happening.

many american companies have declared good results,the fall expected there is less then expected.

 i would suggest you a link to see sector wise performance.http://www.equitymaster.com/research-it/company-info/qtrres.asp


By sandesh saboo, Research Associate/Analyst, saboo associates  | 08 02 2009 06:17:23 +0000
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I agree with Darshil here, the Equity markets are not the barometer of the economy..

The consumers are still in a fix .. India is still into the slowdown..


By Japan Shah, H.O.D, Oxford School of Management  | 06 08 2009 15:42:21 +0000
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I quite agree with Darshil here, and still there is not much of confidence in consumer the way he spends and investors, so people are still in the 50-50 mode where they are still unable to come to terms with recession, and the market which is on a high is mainly due to the stable government and the FIIIs so....still India is not out of recession according to me..


By Jyoti Rath, Sr. Associate, Barclays  | 06 02 2009 07:17:54 +0000
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RISING OF SHARE MARKET DOES NOT MEAN THAT THERE IS END OF RECESSION IN INDIA.PLS.DO NOT MISGUIDE BY THIS SITUATION,AS IT HAS RISE ONLY BECAUSE OF SUPPORT FROM FIII'S.ONLY YETERDAY I READ A NEWS THAT STUDENT PASSED FROM IIIM(AHMD.)ARE SITTING IDLE


By AJIT KUMAR JAIN, Finance/Budgeting Manager, SVIL MINES LTD  | 06 02 2009 06:43:34 +0000
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We may all agree that today India is not isolated from the other countries, especially US and Europe. However we are trying to do so, but it is still a distant future. So unless the global economy recovers, the recession for India is not over completely. However, since we got a good demand condition in our own country and a stable government with its policies inclined towards growth and faster recovery, we can hope to do better than the rest of the world and the recovery for us will be sooner than other countries. Ultimately it all comes down to the sentiments of the people. if majority of the people feels that Recession is over and starts spending, then surely there won't be any place for Recession to stay in the economy. So as far as i am concerned, i feel that this recession is not over yet but the signs of recovery are now starting to be visible.
By Pankaj Panchal, Forex Dealer, Management Student - Mumbai University  | 05 31 2009 16:14:37 +0000
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We cannot exactly say whether its the end of recession in India. Right now what we can say is that it has recovered from worst to better and still its under improvement phase. If we consider IT market, then many companies and firms have utilised this span of period in reducing or minimizing bottlenecks which they can make out, hence carrying themselves close to perfection.

so more precisely saying. India has recovered a lots from recession, but its not still preferrable to say that its the end of recession.


By Amit Patel, Managing Director, Innovative InfoSolutions  | 05 30 2009 11:15:49 +0000
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No, unless government take firm steps towards it, SENSEX cannot reveal the actual situation of the recession. Unless you have a control on inflation rate and manage the pressure, you will not be out of recession. Todays situation is having inflation rate below 1% and comodities actual prices are very high almost 30% more when inflation was 3.8%. Most of the companies reveal their plan for lay off for next six month or more depends on the situation, how would we say it is end of recession.

This recession (in market it is correction) will go on for next six month, I believe it will end by June 2010 in actual manner.


By Nitin M Aras, Head/VP/GM-Tech. Support, ODTIN Food Solutions Pvt Ltd  | 05 30 2009 10:11:24 +0000
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Can't say the slow down is over yet.

 Don't count on the basis of the current stock market which goes up and down on the pump and dump tactics of the FIIs.

I would like to ask is wether the correction is over or what?

 


By Manoj , Branch Manager/Regional Manager Path Infotech Ltd  | 05 30 2009 08:50:44 +0000
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