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Topic : Strategies after Liquidity Event
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Created by : Padmanabhan R, Articled / Audit assistant, Finance student  | 06 11 2009 08:12:24 +0000
Functional Area : Capital Management(Corporate Finance)
Keywords : undercapitalization
Activity:  641 views;  last activity : 07 06 2010 20:18:09 +0000

It seems like many of the Indian retail participants failed to strike a balance between profitability and liquidity. Many of them were undercapitalized and enjoyed excess returns at the expense of underfunding. This aggressive policy of financing doesn’t  give any  warning sign as long as you are able to generate returns and there is enough liquidity in the market, but can turn fatal at times the market turns grey.  ‘Subhiksha’ and the like paid the price of being undercapitalized . Though a higher rate of return on investment look attractive, when considering the long term horizon we need to account for contingencies also. ‘Profitability with liquidity rather than profitability at the expense of liquidity’ is a lesson we should learn from the case.

 
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Dear Mathew Cherian  sir,

what I was telling was that the banks never followed the government , they were reluctant to give loans. Liquidity position of the firm here refers to the ability to meet the current liabilities in time. Subkisha depended heavily on debt and so there current liabilities were very high. Subhiksha was actually funding long term needs with short term sources. Unlike equity, though cheaper current liabilities should be met in spite of the financial position of the company. Due to the tax shield trading on equity results in higher earnings per share.  There was never an option for bank loan.

Subhiksha made a rapid growth from 150 stores in 2006 to 1600 stores in 2008 and turnover from 330 to 2305crore respectively and even got listed in the global top 50 dynamos. But most of this growth was financed through debt and subhiksha maintained only a thin equity base of 32 crore, it’s total share holders fund including premium totalled 180 crore.  With the market crash things changed. The option to raise funds through equity was closed and banks were reluctant to give loans. It is estimated that subhiksha with a debt burden of over 750 cr required a cash infusion of atleast 300 cr to stay afloat. All through the years of success subhiksha underestimated the requirement to infuse enough liquidity in to the system, which becomes vital during tough times. With a 4000cr pa turnover at a tiny equity base of 32 cr they were trading on equity. 

The liquidity position of subhiksha was questionable. With majority of the funding through debt, current liabilities were high. With the market conditions making it difficult to find funds subhiksha had a tough time settling current liabilities and raising enough working capital.

This is what Mr Subramanian, promoter of subhiksha and 59% stake holder said when asked “Is liquidity and lack of enough equity and money the real issue  “.

“Yes truly that is the right understanding – while we were a conservative low cost aam aadmi facing business on the business side we were high leverage thin capital company on the balance sheet side – as long as things were running smoothly it worked – like the Investment banks on Wall St when the fresh supply of liquidity was cut off we were choked off – the liquidity has drained and business levels completely collapsed. A shame for a business that would have done Rs 4000 Cr this year on turnover and saved consumers over Rs 400 cr”

And about raising funds through bank

“In Sept banks were not even lending to each other forget lending to us ! and in a business like ours where stock and cash are like blood we seized up pretty fast when the blood supply got choked. “

Your comments are highly valued

Thank you and regards


By Padmanabhan R, Articled / Audit assistant, Finance student  06 14 2009 09:24:04 +0000
 
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Yes definitely there is a lesson to learn.....

Company can go bankrupt if it is very, very profitable but it is not very liquid but also company can go bankrupt if it has a lot of cash but it is not profitable. It may take a while, but if it remains unprofitable, it will eventually go bankrupt. Its available cash will be used to finance the losses, but when the cash runs out, the assets of the company will have to shrink because there will be insufficient funds to replace them as they wear out. The company will become smaller and smaller and will eventually fail.

There is always a tradeoff between liquidity and profitability; gaining more of one ordinarily means giving up some of the other. You can see that it's dangerous to be on either extreme of the line: i.e. highly liquid but not very profitable, and highly profitable but not very liquid. And there's a broad middle ground between the two extremes where the company wants to reside which is what companies always strive for. Most of the times investors go for it considering the probable rate of return (considering future profitability). Businesses are bound to take that kind of decision (risk) to take advantage & to gain other benefits in terms of valuation..........


By Jyoti Rath, Sr. Associate, Barclays  06 11 2009 09:44:29 +0000
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Dear Padmanabhan,

  I understand you clearly, the sales droped due to down turn and they couldn't fund their operations. I don't know what rating the rating agencies assigned to Subiksha. If they had a AAA (very unlikely, it is not the sales volume that  determine that) then Banks would have provided them Prime rates the rate they cahrge on their valuable corporates. Even if Banks were willing to lend the rates would have been subprime in the range above 20%. My fater used to run an export business where the working capital used to be subprime since they were not rated.

If Subiksha mantained a monthly excess cash requirement schedule then the moment the sales started droping they could have taken evasive action like doing something about marketing and such.

Before the start of the financial year a company can get a bearing on their excess cash by the formula (Sales x profit margin on sales x (1-dividend payout ratio)) - accounts payable) which will give the excess cash requirement or not.

The method I employed earlier comes directly from budgetting.

In India they don't use this much because of the excess control it generates and also for the reason that Indian companies are run on 'club culture' something where OB is the motivator for such organizational setups. If companies were run on 'existential culture' then this sort of tools will come handy where Fincance is the prime motivator.  


By Mathew Cherian, Research Associate/Analyst, Western Michigan University  | 06 14 2009 18:42:16 +0000
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Dear sir,

           Here liquidity refers to the liquidity position of the company. They actually followed an aggressive working capital policy, financing permanent needs with current liabilities. Taking advantage of the lower cost of current liabilities, they were trading on equity.

During the economic slowdown though government tried to infuse liquidity into the system by cutting rates, banks never acted accordingly. They were reluctant to give loans. This resulted in a liquidity crisis for subhiksha and the like.

                                           Thank you


By Padmanabhan R, Articled / Audit assistant, Finance student  | 06 13 2009 10:27:44 +0000
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I think this is one of the lessons we should learn from the liquidity crisis.


By Padmanabhan R, Articled / Audit assistant, Finance student  | 06 11 2009 08:12:24 +0000
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Dear Padmanabhan,

   Liquidity crisis occurs not because the government does anything in which case others also would have been in a quandry. Others like Mobile store which started around the same time as Subhiksha is doing fine. Moreover working capital is not managed with low interst funds from banks. It comes through the subprime route running up to double digit rates. Usually what companies do is follow the process of 'compensating balance' loans for working capital meaning the interst is deducted in advance on top of certain amount the banks withholds before giving out the debt. Suppose if you need 1000 and bank rate for you not being worthwhile meaning one who hasn't created a name of themselves like lowly ratef firm then it will be subprime around 22% in India sometime back, then bank will withold 220+ say another 60 for compensation and give you 730 and after one year you will have to pay back the whole 1000 making the interst rate around 28%.

This has nothing to do with the government lowering rates etc; and banks following suit.


By Mathew Cherian, Research Associate/Analyst, Western Michigan University  | 06 13 2009 19:12:10 +0000
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First of all having been trained abroad many of the words used by Indian professionals are alien to me. Liquidity in proper sense is used abroad in a market sense, either financial liquidity for market securities.

I persume what Padmanabhan is trying to convey is dip in sales or slow down which affects cash fow of the company and an underfinanced company depending soley on sales as source for monthly operations can be in trouble. In US they do this they have a monthly forecast for monthly cash flow and the excess is borrowed which keeps the cost of capital down. Here too we can follow that provided we have a forecast for cash at hand + monthly sales + receivables collected for the month - payables. If we have a deficit we finance it from a Bank else we have a surplus for the month all well and good.

 Edit: Actually the process followed is called the excess fund required for each month of operation for a financial year. It is (cash at the begining of month+a/r collected+ sales receipts) - (payables for the month + overhead expenses for the month like marketing and normal overheads + planned excess cash requirement for the begining of next month). If surplus or deficit no-financing or financing decision is taken. Then there is a whole gamut of process that originate from this. When planning for the financial year, once these targets are not met then retributivei actions are undertaken. There is collection discounts for those who pay early etc;. The whole Company processes can be designed around this. Like if sales are slackening a review of operations to the causes, the retributive actions if one finds what is wrong like a new product launched in the market which is eating into your market share, work of competiion, government regulations, even substitutes hiting market seens. Retributive actions include faster r&d to produce better product like product enhancement etc;.

In case of Subhiksha, I think they were discount retailers for Mobile phones and in some place they ran Departmental stores. In times like India is switching into modern retailing they were sticking with the old model of poor display and ration shop like attitude. Now Asim Premji has come to their risk and is pumping in some funds into their operations. Their model I think if at all it works will work only in villages and small towns and not in big cities where the real consumers live and work. So I think unless they change or doing any tampering with cashflow cycles will do any good to them. In fact I think they are retailers and they don't sell in credit too much. 


By Mathew Cherian, Research Associate/Analyst, Western Michigan University  | 06 13 2009 18:59:17 +0000
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yes it is always a tradeoff between liquidity and profits..this is what is not thought in schools and collages to have liquid cash.even our curiculams fails to emphasis the importance of having enough liquid cash to ward off bad times.

many organisations have out of experience created reserves and fixed deposits just to see bad times out.we have not deviced a perfect formula to say this much would be enough and tis are for bad times.we tend to make a mistake of using funds ear marked for bad times to be used as and when required for our daily routine.

discipline in finace matters comes from the child hood.it cannot come over nite.it cannot be practiced overnite.it comes from the way we are brought up the way we have managed our finances from our child hood.

it is when we find that after so many cycles of ups and down in business that it was lack of liquidity that troubled the business.experience that we realise the need to have reserves which can be used for real bad times.but we keep digging in to those reserves all the time.

it could be a great business opportunities for insurance companies if they can have a insurance which could provide for liquidity at times like this yes offcourse it is for a cost all the time.may be some conditions apply..they would have a set of conditions that the bisiness should have to follow and even after that the business finds itself in liquidity crisis..providing liquidity at such times could be a massive business. and it would help in reducing the idle capital and help business in being better off and maximise the use of resources at there end.

may be there have to be some acctural studies done to find out how offen busineess fail because of lack of liquidity..and what is the cost so many organisations are paying to have enough liquidity for each busineess and how capital is getting blocked at each business..and how can we try to mitigate such a situation.it is seen that many a times it is the lack of liquidity which effects the prospect of very good management and business ideas.

we could think of having a insurance company coming up and take up the place.many banks do finance but there is a place for such a business.when we can have life insurance for people why not for business..people is a small amounts but when business fail it effects many people.many a business could be saved and many job could be saved. alla satyam.may be a managemnet take over for some time by such insurance comapnay which have a pool of management specialist..and liquidity etc idea can be exploreed and a new business area could come up.


By sandesh saboo, Research Associate/Analyst, saboo associates  | 06 13 2009 09:50:23 +0000
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Profitability at the cost of liquidity is not envisaged in any plan. While profitability flows from market conditions like demand in excess of supply and input costs, liquidity depends on variables in working capital cycle and sometimes may behave in misalignment with the growth of the organization. What I mean to say is that the liquidity conditions assumed in a business model may be driven by certain systemic issues that may lie beyond the control or model of the entrepreneur. The right return on capital is achieved by an appropriate mix of own capital and borrowed capital. And the mix does help in realizing a better scale of economy too. For instance, an enterprise focused on liquidity may sell less at credit or may borrow less or may have a strict just in time inventory model which may or may not help achieve customer objectives and overall may not get the scale advantages which a competing enterprise obtains from the marke environment, taking a conscious risk on liquidity. This is not to say that liquidity principle should be given a go by, but to emphasize the point that the liquidity issues of an enterprise need to be understood from the overarching business model, scales of economy, competition being a driver and of course, the diligence of the enterprise in assuming a risk exposure on its customers and counterparties. Once market conditions influence liquidity adversely, it is incumbent on the enterprise to tighten credit to its debtors,  lengthen credit on purchases a bit and forego a bit of topline and margin for the sake of a more orderly working capital cycle that is liquid enough. Such situations are an ideal opportunity for the enterprises to restructure their balance sheet, get out of non core assets, renegotiate their borrowings for a more sustainable credit arrangement and realise sustainability of the enterprise while remaining a profitable business. Subiksha may have been a case of mismanagement rather than liquidity lost on profitabillity alone. Or perhaps, they lost on both counts. They needed to revisit their business model ahead of their problems. I am not sure whether they did that. Interesting debate, thanks for that.


By GOPALAN PARTHASARATHY, Head/VP/GM-Credit/Risk, BANKMUSCAT  | 06 11 2009 10:18:43 +0000
 
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