The price of gold struck an all-time high at 1,043.78 dollars an ounce here on Tuesday as the dollar fell on a reported plan by Gulf states to stop using US dollars for oil trading.
Gold reached the level in late afternoon trade on the London Bullion Market, beating the previous record high of 1,032.70 dollars an ounce, and Gold prices hit an all-time high as the dollar weakens.
The dollar weakness appears to be related to the rumoured secret talks about oil being priced in a basket of currencies including gold rather than the dollar, which has added to concerns about the future role of the dollar in international financial markets. And earlier in March even the U.N panel said the world to ditch the US dollar.
So people what do you think will the world ditch the US dollar? what are your views on this?
The key to it all is the fiat currency for trading oil. Under an OPEC agreement, all oil has been traded in US dollars since 1971 (after the dropping of the gold standard) which makes the US dollar the de facto major international trading currency. If other nations have to hoard dollars to buy oil, then they want to use that hoard for other trading too. This fact gives America a huge trading advantage and helps make it the dominant economy in the world.
As an economic bloc, the European Union is the only challenger to the USA's economic position, and it created the euro to challenge the dollar in international markets. However, the EU is not yet united behind the euro -- there is a lot of jingoistic national politics involved, not least in Britain -- and in any case, so long as nations throughout the world must hoard dollars to buy oil, the euro can make only very limited inroads into the dollar's dominance
US economic power is declining due to the current financial crisis. "Dollarization" does not reign anymore. On the contrary, Gulf oil producers and countries such as China, Russia, Japan and France are planning to end dollar-based oil deals. Key-finance ministers have reportedly decided that "a basket of currencies including the Japanese yen and Chinese yuan, along with gold and a new global reserve currency," will replace the dollar. China, which imports a lot of oil from the Middle East, might have serious conflicts with the US over this issue.
Critics argue that some countries, such as Mexico, have already overcome inflation without adopting a foreign currency. They also point out that unlike the eurozone, where countries have a seat in the European Central Bank, dollarized countries lack any influence over US monetary policymaking.
"The grass at the other end of the river looks always green". It is not easy to replace dollar with any other currency as the International currency. Of course there is something called the Weber axion which states any change made or policies enacted will look good for the initial times of it's implementation good or bad policies. Which means trouble eruputs after the initial few months of favorable outcomed due to change.
For example how will one replace the 3 and odd trillion dollars floating outside US. US has an internal money supply of only around 760 billion. Which country is willing to replace all these dollars and print that much amount of their own currency and is willing to create the infrastructure to manage it. US has a very sophisticated infrastructure created to manage this like they have dedicated computer networks that take care of and account every transaction made in dollar world wide moreover they have made this attack proof by cyber criminals or nuclear attacks. They have dedicated processes in place to take care of this in case of anytype of contingency preceivable to mankind.
I don't think these can be replaced overnight by any country including EU the cost is high, the technology involved cannot be replicated very easily on top of the lack of expertise by the local economy to mitigate the consequences of their currency being over printed in large quantities and distributed all over the world. Printing and distributing alone is the way out one has to manage that is like local economy must be so advanced to include all the sophisticated financial instruments and processes available localy which I think only US has for the present and probably some EU countries.
For example I don't think any country has the flexibility to run massive deficits ans still remain resilient after running massive deficits in budget and trade for the need of supplying currencies to the rest of the world. One need to have the sophistication and expertise to take contrarian positions of local economy as and when the world economy needs so and still reamin solvent. I don't think many countries have that expertise, strategy capabilities or wealth creating environment like US.
It’s very difficult to remove dollar dominance overnight. But I think the way US ECONOMY is shaping up with huge fiscal deficit and speed of minting money without realizing future consequences of it, the value of $ will decline gradually over the years and will pave the way for other strong currency. China, India & other European countries are already demanding the change in global reserve currency. One of the suggestions put forward was to make IMF's SDR as global reserve currency.
I think slowly all the export oriented countries will try to build their export exposure in their local currency or other common currency mutually decided by them. China is already driving for this. This will slowly reduces the value and impact of $ dollars in global economy and makes it easy to replace the $.
Apart from this as predicted that global economy will shift from US/EUROPE region to Asia-pacific region, it makes less dependence on US and easy for countries to deal in common currency rather than US $.
It depends on country by country. But in India, I believe people will like Rupee to dominate over Dollar and they are trying to do so from years. So, it can be very easily said that if people get chance, they will surely reject trading with Dollars.
Yes I totally agree with you Japan that the dollar dominance would not get over with in few years it would take time, but gradually the dollar dominance would reduce in the global trade as the dominance of US has reduced on the developing countries like India, China, etc.
Euro was introduced by the European union to reduce their dependence on dollar for the global trade. As compared to those years and talking about present the euro denominated trades has increased share in the global trade. This shows how the dollar dominance is slowly reducing in the world trade.
China is hurting, but they are doing something about it. They buy into Mining Companies to ensure they get their copper, iron ore, etc, and at the same time they have the opportunity to make profits as well. Remember, countries like China and India have huge populations, and their consumer market is growing. They form actually their own Global Villages into Global Markets.
It will be easier for OPEC countries to deal in EURO's. but that will serioulsy hamper Dollar. Many analyst still believe that US's military intervention in middle east is mainly to ensure DOLLAR dominance in oil trading
Yes Many countries are having tough time because of dropping doller values, especially china which is major export country and purely depends on export revenue.
I agree that it could happen, but it will be a very bold step. The countries mentioned, together will be an enormous powerful pact
Is this the end of the USD’s Supremacy? Do you think they will go through with such a bold step?
They denied it, but what does that to the USD? Oil & Gold (XAU) were both in the spotlight with Oil being the key driver for much of the USD weakness. following the Independent report of Arab states in talks to flee USD denominated contracts.
According to me the rumour what it is, is not rumour anymore where the world's top currency was thrown into doubt as reports suggest that Arab states had launched secret moves with China and Russia to stop using the dollar bill for oil trading.
And also the the United Nations has called for a new global reserve currency to end dollar supremacy, which has allowed the United States the "privilege" of building a huge trade deficit. And with gold really performing well has been viewed as a safe-haven investment, and has won back favour in recent months as the global economy struggles out of its worst slump in decades. I think the world will ditch the US dollar in coming days and even the weakening of dollar also suggests the same, i may be wrong but that is the signal that is resonating everywhere.
Just imagine the daily trade happening across the globe in denomination of Dollars, the dollars outside US, the dollar reserves with various countries.. It practically not possible..
The dollar may go down in the near future but replacing just cannot happen atleast for the next few years...
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No we are not.. not right now. We are still in recovery stage and this time I do not think the same mistake will be repeated. Having tough time is one thing and going back to recession is totally different, we cannot mix them.