The earth is warming up. The opinion of the majority of scientists is that this warming is man-made, a result of the greenhouse gases – particularly carbon dioxide – that are a by-product of transport, industry and energy production. It is hard to predict how severe global warming will be. However, even a rise of 3oC (which is by no means the worst case scenario) could result in large-scale crop failures, the flooding of vast areas of low-lying land and more frequent extreme weather events (such as hurricanes).
As a response to climate change, the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) was negotiated at the Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro in 1992. This treaty, which has been signed by 192 nations, set up a series of negotiations on climate change – a process that resulted in the 1997 Kyoto Protocol. Under the Kyoto Protocol (often just called Kyoto), industrialised countries are committed to capping their greenhouse gas emissions. By 2008–2012, the EU, for example, must reduce the amount of greenhouse gas it produces by 8% compared to 1990 levels. Overall, Kyoto will lead to a total reduction in greenhouse gas emissions from the developed world of 5.2%. In addition to these targets, a system of emissions trading was introduced. A state is allowed to exceed its target if it buys 'spare capacity' from another nation which has not filled its quota. Developing nations are exempted from any targets so as not to hinder development. The Kyoto Protocol finally entered into force in February 2005, following Russia's ratification of the treaty.
In July 2005 an alternative strategy, the Asia-Pacific Partnership for Clean Development and Climate (APPCDC), was unveiled. The driving forces behind APPCDC are the USA and Australia, neither of which have ratified Kyoto out of fear that it will lead to domestic job losses. Rather than imposing compulsory emission cuts, APPCDC advocates a technological solution to global warming. The six contracting states (Australia, China, India, Japan, South Korea and the USA), which have a combined population of over 2.5 billion and together produce 50% of the world's greenhouse gas emissions, have agreed to develop and share clean technology. Although APPCDC describes itself as a partnership which will “complement, but not replace, the Kyoto Protocol”, its opponents see APPCDC as a direct threat to Kyoto.