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U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) finally hit a bottom

Created by : Pierre Pienaar, CEO/MD/Director, Xcellence Wealth Creator  | 09 18 2009 06:50:51 +0000
Industry : Forex tradingFunctional Area : Growth(Strategy & Execution)
Keywords : control forex trading usd/eur your inside viewertm profitable forex trading
Activity:  315 views;  last activity : 10 06 2010 10:27:15 +0000

Hi Fellow Traders,

 

U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) finally hit a bottom as the stock market rally stalled in the US and profit taking set in for the rest of the day. USD/JPY rallied and the Euro fell back from Fresh year highs. Weekly Jobless Claims improved to 545k vs. 557k previously. August Housing Starts were at 0.60m as forecast. Crude Oil was down -$0.04 closing at $72.47. In US Stocks, DJIA -7 points closing at 9783, S&P -3 points closing at 1065 and NASDAQ -6 points closing at 2136.

 

Euro – 1.4715

Initial support at 1.4516 (Sept 14 low) followed by 1.4467 (Sept 9 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.4768 (Sept 17 high) followed by 1.4866 (Sept 22 2008 high)

Yen – 91.30

Initial support is located at 90.00 (Big Figure) followed by 89.71 (February 11 low). Initial resistance is now at 91.64 (Sept 15 high) followed by 92.60 (Sept 9 high).

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What are your insights?

 

Thanks

 

Pierre Pienaar

 

  
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Top Argument
3
0

The Dollar will decline more
By Pierre Pienaar, CEO/MD/Director, Xcellence Wealth Creator  09 18 2009 06:50:51 +0000
 
Top Argument
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Pierrie, I think it is not support but resistence since the currencies mentioned are appreciating. I think the source got irrational. The rational is if you support an appreciating currency too much then the it will affect the Exports and a country will have Balance of Payment problems along with it will affect the export division of the economy like history taught us in the "Dutch Tulip buble" where tulips became favorite export commodity in Holland and everybody started investing in Tulips and the Dutch Kroner started rising and Tulips became expensive for Importers and they stoped imports and it hit all the Invesors who got into Tulip mania driving the Dutch economy depending on this to tatters.

Now if the currency decline then there is upward preassure on price and citizens purchasing power is lost and if the wages don't go up with change in price levels can result in hardships. So the currency is supported from going down too much.

Players make their investments based on these factors. They also engage in something called Carry trade to take advantage of rising currency or to get out of falling local currency. Then correction happens when the currency start turning around due to above factors and trade balance that may happen due to this upward and downward swings.
By Mathew Cherian, Research Associate/Analyst, Western Michigan University  09 19 2009 17:42:12 +0000
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By Vaibhav Rastogi, Director, A2Z Forex  | 10 06 2010 10:27:15 +0000
0
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Pierre, even I believe so the dollar might decline a bit now which I believe is a policy intervention from US Fed to correct the imbalance wth other countries due to deficits. Once the imbalances reach managable levels I feel the dollar will start rising again.

Then the decline may not be too severe to affect their citizens purchasing power and their the wages are indexed so companies will be forced to adjust to loss in purchasing power by way of wage adjustment which is hard. Moreover US is a strong currency policy Economy and I feel the decline will be short and decisive.

One should be aware that the trade imbalance is not a small problem for US now which seems to be one of the catalyst for the subprime crises.
By Mathew Cherian, Research Associate/Analyst, Western Michigan University  | 09 25 2009 09:08:57 +0000
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The troubles to USD is only now starting. The China chose to pay its promised funding to IMF in yuans and not in USD. USD fundamentally shored up by BRIC countries buying of US treasury bonds, will likely suffer a heavy blow on account of BRIC countries increasingly vociferous demand to replace the reserve currency status for USD.

Even a small compromise in this status will considerably limit the viability of US economy as the currency inflows into the country will evaporate and make US a debtor nation at exorbitant rates.

Death and taxes and also profligate life style of the nation catches up finally,
By siva raman, Snr Finance Manager, Energy City Qatar  | 09 24 2009 15:55:34 +0000
0
0

Euro Hits One Year High. Trading is muted as the euro rises above $1.48.

http://video.forbes.com/Tuesday/euro-hits-one-year-high?partner=email

 

Share your insights on this video

Where do you think the Dollar will go in the next months?

 

* I am busy compiling ideas around the following topic: “Is Forex Trading Really Profitable? - The Big Debate”. If you wish to join the debate, you will have free advertising in the book, as well as a Free Copy. Let’s here your valuable Insights. Please no slander aloud. It must be based on facts.
By Pierre Pienaar, CEO/MD/Director, Xcellence Wealth Creator  | 09 24 2009 13:25:51 +0000
0
0

Huge deficit, stimulus spending and low consumption etc are affecting us economy and how long can it continue to have the global currency status.  
By Padmanabhan R, Articled / Audit assistant, Finance student  | 09 18 2009 17:22:17 +0000
0
0

Of course Pierre..this is the clear cut sign of decline in dollar value which doesn't seem to get recovered very soon...
By Jyoti Rath, Sr. Associate, Barclays  | 09 18 2009 08:13:39 +0000
0
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Yes, there will be down trend, but it's quite interesting that various fundamental News, like Iran's nuclear capabilities let the Dollar fall, but the results in the German election strengthen the dollar.

 

However, I find Technical Analysis more reliable.
By Pierre Pienaar, CEO/MD/Director, Xcellence Wealth Creator  | 09 29 2009 03:53:46 +0000
0
0

Yes, there will be down trend, but it's quite interesting that various fundamental News, like Iran's nuclear capabilities let the Dollar fall, but the results in the German election strengthen the dollar.

 

However, I find Technical Analysis more reliable.
By Pierre Pienaar, CEO/MD/Director, Xcellence Wealth Creator  | 09 28 2009 13:24:25 +0000
1
0

To be more specific as to why this is a policy move, the downturn has reduced the Foreign Investments in American dollar through the treasury bill route which was helping them in managing their budget deficits. This rduction has to be mitigated some how and the solution is a faster turn around of the American economy which can accelarate other economies like China and the solution is reducing the imbalances which can be achieved through depreciating the currency here the dollar when more American productw will be exported turning them around and mitigating.

I don't think the dollar will free fall because the robustness of the American economy which is full functional in nature and resilient to shocks as seen for the past 20 years how it is withstanding the shocks being played on it, if one would like to count them starting from the 1991 recession probably we can fill few pages of iti.
By Mathew Cherian, Research Associate/Analyst, Western Michigan University  | 09 25 2009 18:39:07 +0000
0
1

Ameican dollar moves in only a band of 2% for they have a strong currency policy. Then during globalization the Eurozone export picked up and the euro started breaching these bands and this was some accomodaton made by the Americans then and euro appreciation arrested larger exports to US. I think American dollar will stabiize for they have been a strong currency for long and many Investors world over depend on this currency and the American self interest is not served by deprectiating it too much except that they can export more in times like this.
By Mathew Cherian, Research Associate/Analyst, Western Michigan University  | 09 18 2009 19:11:52 +0000
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