Looking to the current trends and the facts around us, this recesion should pass too! The ubiquitous question is WHEN!Typically, things bounce back in such matters in a period of an year, tho the boom may not be that intense.The first indicator is the concessions and sops that the government is pumping in. Second is the fall in oil price. Then the elections around the corner next year, which will elicit some appeasement measures by the incumbent party. Ours being a country with very high domestic consumption, will not be hit by the global upheavals for a long period. So, let us put Nov 09 as the celebration time!
The tragedy today is that
there are many walking encyclopedias that are living failures. The
More practical and appropriate views on this economic recession is:
"This is the time to reunite together for any small or a big
organization,
This is the time to motivate
and retain people which are the biggest asset, this is the time to show more
commitments to the customers, this is the time show values of our company to
the world, and this is the time to stand by our Nation". Recession will
run automatically.
By
Mahesh Chandra, Manager-Talent Acquisition , Interra Systems 03 06 2009 06:47:31 +0000
As per current trends and situation, recession will take time. And it will take more than 2 years to stable. Because so many companies are declared bankrupt and so many companies profits are down. People have refused to spent extra money and they are saving for near future. By
Harshil Shukla, Software Developer, Gateway Technolabs Pvt. Ltd12 15 2008 10:40:42 +0000
Mr.Srinivasalu good way to relate recession with form of sachin tendulkar.I also feel that from past few days there have been signs of improved economy with the sensex touching 11,000 points and takeover of satyam by tech mahindra to keep that company afloat in the market.But still the economy will take time to recover and hopefully we will see sensex touching 20,000 again by the end of this year.
I just fail to understand, if everybody shouts recession, recesion and never comes out of it, will it end? Is it not a vicious cycle?
By vicious cycle I mean, with more and more salary cuts and layoffs, people will remain more scared to purchase or purchasing power will decrease. That in term will affect companies, thereby reducing more salaries and increased layoffs. So this cycle will continue. If we shake off the mindset and be postive, recession can end in a month time.
Ms. Bhatia I agree with you, few years back if you all remember we had similar problem and it lasted for 3 years perticularly for construction industry, and it picked up again. People who earned bad name in that period has bounced back and those who supported in that testing time are still with them and no one can replace them. Nothing to worry just cooperate with each other and survive. It's a matter of TIME...
By
B.Mehernath , Marketing & Technical Head, Bondit Construction Chemicals Pvt. Ltd.
| 04 09 2009 16:15:27 +0000
Mr.Chandrakumar i definitely agree to your view that it all depends on us as do we see the situation.Its all the perception that you have about things and if we believe that we will overcome these tough times then we certainly will.So think positively and don't get bogged down by tough times.
I feel By End of Nov '09 market will start growing again, this stagnant water will again start to flow, but that does not mean recession ends... complete recovery from recession will take till end of 2010.
By
Diptanjan Mukherjee, Team Leader -(Technical), Navayuga Infotech
| 04 08 2009 11:27:00 +0000
The recession is all in the minds of the people. Forget what happened in the last year and think fresh , start fresh. Its all up their in you mind the answer to the recession. Once you make up your mind, you can come out of any difficulty and we all can come out of this so called recession/depression/correction.
We shall expect recession to end before 2009 November.
By
Dayanand Deshpande, Senior Consultant, Ernst & Young
| 03 27 2009 10:42:01 +0000
I strongly feel that the recession should end by this year, as the things / business should keep on moving, off course it might be now in slow track,as the effort by effort will gradually picks up the speed, the same thing will apply for our star cricketer Mr.Tendulkar,who has out of form (recession) for some time, and now is in full form, but he never laid down himself nor looked back,so let us all keep in mind that " the ups and downs" always are the part and parcel of our life.
How often do we debate - When shall the Fall befall? Whether we draw our strategy or not, Nature has its way. Because there will be spring time with flowers of all hues all arround, in advance the preparations are made.
Is it not a similar panic of impending disaster as we get obscessed with the question "how long the dreadful night shall last?" or who will be most affected when the rivers are in spate? Obvously, the worst and the darkest night too has to gracefully give way to a day as it dawns and the ones living proximal to the weakest portions of the embankment are most vulnerable . Can any amount of intelligence change the principles of Nature to make the night shorter by a few hours?
As going gets tough, the tough ones with the 5 'C's will sustain.
Things are improving. After general elections in India & full fledged budget presenatation, things will improve fast & by 2009 year end, we will be out of this scnerio.
This
Story is about a man who once upon a time was selling "Wada-Pav" by
the roadside. He was illiterate, so he never read newspapers. His eyes were
weak, so he never watched television. But enthusiastically, he sold lots of
"Wada-pavs". He was smart enough to offer some attractive schemes to
increase his sales. His sales and profit went up.. He ordered more a more raw
material and buns and use to sale more. He recruited few more supporting staff
to serve more customers. He started offering home deliveries. Eventually
he got himself a bigger and better stove. As his business was growing,
the son, who had recently graduated from College, joined his father.
Then
something strange happened. The son asked, "Dad, aren't you aware of
the great recession that is coming our way?" The father replied, "No,
but tell me about it." The son said, "The international situation is
terrible. The domestic situation is even worse. We should be prepared for the
coming bad times." The man thought that since his son had been to college,
read the papers, listened to the radio and watched TV. So the next day
onwards, the father cut down his raw material order and buns, took down the
colourful signboard, removed all the special schemes he was offering to
the customers and was no longer as enthusiastic. He reduced his staff strength
by giving layoffs. Very soon, fewer and fewer people bothered to stop at
his hotdog stand. And his sales started coming down rapidly, same is the
profit. The father said to his son, "Son, you were right". "We
are in the middle of a recession and crisis. I am glad you warned me ahead of
time."
By
Mahesh Chandra, Manager-Talent Acquisition , Interra Systems
| 03 06 2009 06:53:16 +0000
The most affected would be those businesses who depend on Exports and Financial Support from abroad;whereas the least affected would be those businesses dependent on Domestic Demand.
The saviour of India's Growth would be the General Elections to the Lok Sabha to be held spread over 45 days and theses elections would inject cash in the order of Rs 50-80000 Crores
For IT the switch should be to grow the Domestic Market
The saviour is India's population of 1.1Billion Plus and our have nots
In Pharma, this recession provides us the opportunity to capture global market share; so is it in Healthcare and may be in so many other Industries like Automobile Mfg
I have to agree with pragya, when the economies are so inter-connected globally and main engine for Growth of Indian Economy is IT. As the demand globally goes down for all products , there may not be much cost/benefit ratio of volume to outsource for US companies, What we can learn from US Real estate bust story is , ignoring the early signs and not putting in corrective measures early enough. I have see Manmohan Singh, during Harshad Mehta driven tumble of share market debacle pumping in 900 Crores into Banks from the Budget to offset the crisis, when he was the FM. So the Bail outs are also not uncommon either in India or in US, only the name changes. But the key is catching in time, so that bail out amount can be pegged at lower amounts. If India ignores and stays in the Pseudo comfort of "It will not happen here" or 'It will not happen to this sector", which is very natural defense behavior which we have seen in US also initially, which if stayed for long in that Phase, will prove costly. This recession will be like a ripple affect for global/connected finance/banking/economies. So depending on where the location of the industry/business in the pond/global economy vis-a-vis the financing/banking commitments and also which part of the circle of ripple it is, will affect accordingly. And another factor for India, if economy slips, there is a danger of Inflation picking up or not coming down as fast as economy coming down because of mismatch of supply demand of certain essential things. But I am very confident of Manmohan Singh's qualifications and experience in handling economy, in fact he is the only qualified person among world/global leaders, when it comes to economy, and he will bail us out from this situation as quickly as possible........
Lt us try to start up the new thing from the beginning.
As u said since from the beginning of the life the recession started, in the name of struggle.This struggle provoked him/her to invent fire,wheel and so on..... so we are here .
let us remember this sentence always THIS TOO WILL PASS
By
Bellala Gopinatha Rao, Assistant General Manager, Promax Management Consultants
| 12 13 2008 15:21:59 +0000
A ggod friend with a financial MNC shared this idea that the recession abroad will lead to retrenchment there, where the cost is high.However, the work has to be done. So, outsourcing to cheaper locales is inevitable.We logically stand to gain. That is one reason why Nov 09, looks reasonable to me. By
sanjeev r joshi, Head/VP/GM-Corporate Planning/Strategy, ProMax Management Consultants P Ltd
| 12 13 2008 05:33:31 +0000
The million dollar question is how long the recession will last. Let me say from the start, that the world and its financial system are now more interlocked than any other time in history and that the butterfly effect is very real. We have also stepped into the unknown, into a new paradigm and there is no going back! Despite the rise of China, India, and the other Brics, the US is still by far the world's most important economy, which means it's the one we should be looking to if we're hoping to work out when things might turn up again.
Mr.Sanjay i have the same view as yours.The stimulus packages that the government have announced in the past few months and the rate cuts in the monetary policies will start to take effect towards the end of this year and hopefully by the IInd quarter of next year it will somewhat come on the track.But what do you think whether our economy will come to the same level as it was couple of years back when the sensex touched 20000 points.
By nov09 the recovery will start and by april 2010 we can see the effects of recovery hiring will start ........that the sign but for it to completely stblise it should be around april 2012
The best case scenario will be for the crisis to continue throughout 2009.
What I expect is that the "domino effect" will result in further collapses elsewhere in the global complex network of interdependencies and will result in other waves of major failures (say credit card crunch) and this would take the crisis several years ahead !
If you are optimistic by nature and don't like the "doom and gloom" scenarios, then , you may go for Nov 09 and why not maybe June 09. Or maybe we don't have a crisis at all !
It is our dream to hope for the best and dream as we like. But it is our duty to plan for the worst and get prepared !
By
Mohammed Thiab, Partner/Principal/VP, MV Consulting
| 03 09 2009 12:06:16 +0000
We dont know exactly and the recession is swift and sharp moving down drastically. And Obama investing on national park and researching pig odor and obviously wasting money. Some miracle should happen to beef up the economy....
By
Raju Ramalingam, Business Analyst, Rhytha Web Solutions
| 03 07 2009 05:40:36 +0000
I would like to say that whenever any thing goes high it falls for sometime and then again it goes high. Looking to the current scenario, recession will take atleast 3 years to overcome.
I do not think any one is in position to forecast by definite period on this. But, a thumbrule on this is, when for two successive quarters, industry records increase in growth rate, we may assume, we entered to normal zone from recession period
By
Prakash Saitwal, Technical Support Manager, Aditya Birla Management Corporation P. Ltd.
| 03 05 2009 07:01:41 +0000
Friends, the world is going through the worst downswing since the Great Depression, and India willy nilly has to go downward with the rest of the world. We should expect the slowdown to continue for several quarters, until the world economy recovers. We must batten down our hatches and patiently ride out this storm......
sanjeev, I think it is going to last longer than May of next year 2010. And as per chief economist D.K. Joshi, Credit Rating Information Services of India Ltd (Crisil) also predicts that recession will end this year, but still i feel the recovery of what was lost won't happen until 2010. There have been months of economic decline, with local recession, job losses and rising unemployment. This will take time to fix as India is decelerating on all engines. There is not much the authorities can also do to boost growth.....
The way financial companies are facing the crisis in present days, it is not possible to predict the life of this recession. It may last for a year, two or even five. It has very long impact on our life and we need to repay it for long time to come out of it. By
Atul Kumar, `Confidential, Confidential
| 12 13 2008 20:49:31 +0000
Raghu constrution - the oldest of engineering disciplines - has always had scope for work and innovative work. Automatically for entrepreneurs too. You can broadly classify the field in to materials, methods, tools plants and labour. Now, in each of...
A ggod friend with a financial MNC shared this idea that the recession abroad will lead to retrenchment there, where the cost is high.However, the work has to be done. So, outsourcing to cheaper locales is inevitable.We logically stand to gain. That is...
Looking to the current trends and the facts around us, this recesion should pass too! The ubiquitous question is WHEN!Typically, things bounce back in such matters in a period of an year, tho the boom may not be that intense.The first indicator...
