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Created by : Jyoti Rath, Sr. Associate, Barclays  | 03 30 2010 10:24:59 +0000
Industry : Equity Research/AnalyticsFunctional Area : Equities(Markets)
Activity:  244 views;  last activity : 07 06 2010 20:18:09 +0000

In the first half of this fiscal, Reserve Bank of India will sell 2.87 trillion rupees ($64 billion) of bonds, 63% of its record full-year target, less than market expectations etc. On an average, Rs 110-150 billion of issuance would come to the market every week. Traders are looking for a higher portion of three to five year maturities, which could push up short-term rates and flatten the yield curve.

This year the RBI may not buy back as many bonds as it did last year as it would not like to increase liquidity when inflationary pressures are mounting. The RBI is also constrained by the fact that it has nearly exhausted its stock of Market Stabilisation Scheme bonds which are used to absorb liquidity from the markets.

So users, do you think this high government borrowing will drive up interest rates further?

 
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It is obvious that the more borrowings one does, the more is the interest rate on the borrowal. So, its not unnatural that high government borrowing will also drive up interest rates further.


By Jyoti Rath, Sr. Associate, Barclays  03 30 2010 10:24:59 +0000
 
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Yes jyoti it will definitely cause for drive up further interest rate ..


By Vipin Bhasin, Private Equity/Hedge Fund/VC-Manager, Indian Investment Co.  | 06 06 2010 17:38:28 +0000
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 Government borrowing have a bearing on interest rates, but the intensity will depend on the fund requirements of the private sector. Heavy capex spending is expected from many companies in the coming days and government will also be going for more market exposure. Crowding out effect, will have a say and rates are expected to get dearer in the coming days.

Again, tackling inflation and ensuring borrowing cost doesn’t thwart economic growth will be challenging.


By Padmanabhan R, Articled / Audit assistant, Finance student  | 04 01 2010 19:11:25 +0000
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Excesive govt. borrowings can cause an externality calle crowding out where by govt borrowing depletes the credit available for private investments with banks driving up the interest rates.

Moreover, the present situation world over is due to low interest rates and chepa credit hence, which our govt. may be aware like others and can maintain a high interest rate policy to avoid such breakdowns further.

Cheap credits were created to support the leisure class and the consequences are visible. Presidient Regan can be considered as a benefactor for the leisure class by brininging in this phenomenon of chepa credit. Now world over the policy has to shift towards accomodating higher interest rates in which case too the rates can go up.


By Mathew Cherian, Research Associate/Analyst, Western Michigan University  | 03 30 2010 13:05:23 +0000
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