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Created by : Gargi Sinha, Senior Consultant, Hewitt Associates  | 05 07 2009 11:10:12 +0000
Industry : InternetFunctional Area : Growth(Strategy & Execution)
Activity:  673 views;  last activity : 07 06 2010 20:18:09 +0000

I was just going through news & thought of sharing with you guys.

Will this hold true....

Source: Indiatimes

Internet to die by 2010

Video killed the radio star. But could it also kill the Internet? New research from American analyst firm Nemertes Research Group says that by 2010, increasing Internet traffic, particularly video applications like YouTube and Hulu, will fatally clog the tubes.

This isn’t the first such prediction that has been made in the recent past: Brett Swanson of the Discovery Institute, a think tank, warned in 2007 of a coming surge of data that “today’s networks are not remotely prepared to handle”. So are the increasingly dire predictions of the demise of the Internet on the mark, or have rumours of the Net’s death been grossly exaggerated?

It is true that with the advent of Web 2.0, Internet usage has shifted to bandwidth-heavy applications like YouTube and Skype. The amount of traffic generated by YouTube in 2006 was more than that of the entire Internet in 2000. At 50-60 percent a year, the current growth of Internet traffic is enormous. However, several experts believe that the Internet is in no danger of collapsing under the weight of its own success.

Andrew Odlyzko, a computer scientist at the University of Minnesota who specialises in analysing historical trends in networking, believes that global Internet traffic is and will remain manageable with modest capacity updates.

There is some evidence to support that conclusion. For one, telecom companies in both Britain and America are already investing significant amounts in order to upgrade Internet infrastructure, including the last mile cable, to increase capacity. Secondly, the Internet was originally developed to withstand all kinds of catastrophes and has proven to be remarkably robust. It has coped with massive growth over the past 15 years. There’s no reason to suppose this can’t continue.

Anyway, engineers are preparing for the worst by working to replace the Internet with a superfast ‘grid’. So, even if capacity updates fail to keep pace with demand, an alternative will be in place. No one is suggesting that the Internet wouldn’t face operational difficulties if it was left just as it is.

The debate is over whether the rate of investment in capacity upgradation is fast enough to cope with rising demand. Studies like this can provide an impetus for telecom majors to invest in infrastructure. As of now, though, it’s safe to assume that the Net will be with us for a while more.

 
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Technology is ever-evolving. It creates new products which eventually kill some older products. The invention of DVD player killed the Video Cassette Recorder (VCR). Similarly, the invention of flash cards killed floppy disks. The list is endless. By the same token, we can safely say that the internet could die sooner or later but it will resurrect into a better creature capable of helping us doing our business more efficiently and more quickly.

Do we really care about the name (i.e. internet)? I think that we care more about the job to be done irrespective of the name. What about (Globanet) as a coined name for the new future service which will do a better job compared with our present-day internet?


By Ahmed Sultan, ITC, Airline Consultant  05 07 2009 19:11:32 +0000
 
Top Argument
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I am being novice to this field but still I don't think so. If that will happen then many businesses are going to effected. What do you say guys?


By Gargi Sinha, Senior Consultant, Hewitt Associates  05 07 2009 11:16:35 +0000
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I do not think internet is going to see sunset atleast for next three decades, but eventually it will and like Ahmed said, we will see something even better, faster and probably more secure. By the way a genetic computer of half a cup of DNA and perform the same anount of function that all the computers and servers in the whole world would do together. Do we need this lousy internet, and the packets of data being sent over internet anymore once we have such a powerful computing system.

I am not saying anything can be made to travel faster than the speed of light. But probably we will see millions of times wider channels. To put it in simple words, a chunk of data would still take the same time that it takes now to travel across the world but now the chunk is 1024 bits of data, after 50 years it might be 1024 GB of data.

So probably our desktops will be no more than nodes of one super computer sitting probably on moon.

Why not, what is the problem with that? Don't we already have servers and system that runs for years without any maintenance?

If you do not trust me, please invite Fredrik Haren author of "The Idea Book" and he will tell you why what I am saying makes sense.


By Qazi Irfan Mustafa, CEO/Project Management Consultant, e-Centric Consultancy Services Pvt. Ltd.  | 05 13 2009 13:25:23 +0000
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I think its already DEAD! There is nothing NEW to the world and word called INTERNET! I think Mr. Sultan is right. We need to call it differently to keep the net activities alive! What is left to do in this world? You have got everything from transactions to socialising to blogging to porn...!!

I think the word INTERNET is already dead!


By Makrand Bhave, Marketing & MICE, WIZCRAFT International  | 05 08 2009 05:46:23 +0000
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well of course at the same time, we can look at 2012 and the end of the world and say that may be than after, internet may be distroyed completely and be replaced by the newer/evolving technology ... heheheh but thats just a thought u see!


By Ashish Gandhi, CEO/MD/Director, Creative Director, PostBox Communications  | 11 13 2009 09:30:15 +0000
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i rather find it baseless argument, i mean what if nto internet?.... global dependence on internet ( Technology) is getting rather more pervasive then constrictive ..i think dependebility on net going to get increased... in future.


By Nagpal Singh, Sales and Business Development, Babel Group of companies  | 11 10 2009 05:21:24 +0000
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even if it dies , something new will come up , to which we  all will get hooked up  ::

 

quite a possibility as any & everything which is born DIES sooner or later ::


By Ajay Ziz, Dy. Registrar,, University of Jammu  | 11 10 2009 04:13:46 +0000
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I believe if there is no such internet services many of the business may effect. More Google.
By Dharani Kumar, Business Developer, SFJ Consulting  | 11 09 2009 22:00:04 +0000
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Improvised better version is not called killing it is called growing. In the olden days cars used to be started with a handle in the front, rail engines used to run on coal and steam, now a days you dont see both of such things but cars do exist and rail engines do exist.

Internet is nothing but electronic version of road traffic system. So Internet will be there as long as there are roads and people using it. Infact there could be a day where, internet may make the road traffic to minimal.

So Internet will be there and continue. Science is still very young. The current scientific achievements are core fundamental necessities of science. It will take a pretty long time for any of these things to die. We continue to see the existance of scientific inventions of centuries old are still in use even till today. It needs a great deal of out of the universe (not out of the box) thinking to change all this.

What we see as dying is not core technologies, but the products that come using the technologies.

Land line phones may be replaced by mobile phones, but tele communiation system will not. A ype writer will be replaced by a computer, but not a writing mechanism, electric bulb may be replaced by a sodium vapour lamp or halogen lamp or something else, but electricity will remain.

Internet is also like that. It will remain, but probably we will use it through watches, mobile phones or just through a wireless headsets, but it will still be internet.


By Raghu Kastury, Principal Consultant & Head of Strategic Business Unit - Retail & Distribution, Sundaram Infotech Solutions Limited  | 06 07 2009 19:04:48 +0000
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No,definitely not !!! Internet has become  a part and parcel of our lives,we cannot even think of not surfing internet for even a day and for it to die in a year's time is simply not possible.


By Shyamal Maity, Sales/BD Manager, AT&T  | 05 13 2009 09:59:37 +0000
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Internet shall not be dead .

That is why IPV6 is here .

IPv6 is a network protocol .

Sujay

 

 


By Sujay Ghosh, Principal Software Engineer / Individual Contributor, SOAIT Solutions (Worksoft Inc.)  | 05 12 2009 18:17:25 +0000
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Internet will not die. It remains the same but on the end user side changes occurs on a regular basis due to technology innovation. Couple years back we need PC to access the internet and nowadays PDA is enough to access the internet and WIFI and so on. Internet is enchanted one.


By Raju Ramalingam, Business Analyst, Rhytha Web Solutions  | 05 12 2009 18:15:23 +0000
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The Internet is in principle, it is the future of the post and still for long.
In terms of learning and  knowledge (e-learning) to develop cultural and personal development, has not started to make their first steps.
Without this tool for easy access, so individualized, accessible and comprehensive as the desired development, cultural and scientific take dozens and dozens of years to be achieved

By maria do carmo de oliveira cid peixeiro, HR Manager, mithogenia unipessoal lda  | 05 12 2009 15:01:19 +0000
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hehe ... its funny, not the topic, the time line which is projected in the topic. internet can not die just overnight in my opinion. it will enetually be replaced by some other form of means to stay updated and stay in touch but chances of that happening this soon, is what i really cant accept.

we are talking about evolution, not destruction.
what we are talking here is a new technology/means of global communication to replace our old means/technology (internet). now if that has to happen than it has to happen gradually and not within such short span of time. and i do think that there is a need for change. Internet is way too cluttered and messy, it needs an upgrade and sorting. it also needs an aim/goal to give a very defined purpose of evolution and a midterm plan to support that evolution. today internet is evolving like "Amoeba" unidirectional evolution & expansion. it needs a bit of direction to be more precise and much more targeted evolution. this targeted evolution or upgrade would make sure that everything which is coming online at a global level has a purpose and that purpose is well served by its existence in a correct fashion.


By Ashish Gandhi, CEO/MD/Director, Creative Director, PostBox Communications  | 05 12 2009 13:18:13 +0000
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Depends on what new technology surges. Highly unlikely in 2010 but culd b possible after a decade or something, who knos? By the advent of sci-fi inventions maybe we will all be under some other technology attack.


By Smita M, Copywriter  | 05 12 2009 07:18:42 +0000
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The scientists are also aware of the tremendous growth of internet over the last few years. So I believe, they are looking into newer ways to accomodate the updates and heavy-flow. If it suddenly crashes down, some mechanisms would be available to recover the data, if not the damage. 

And yes, this is a havoc threat which should not be unnoticed by the web-scientists.


By Arijita Pal, Manager, Development Support, Child Rights and You (CRY)  | 05 11 2009 10:25:38 +0000
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I dont think the internet will die. How ever absurd but even for a moment if we agree that there is a threat to its existence, I am sure this will be fixed.

As far as DVd's killing VCD's  and such eg's are concerned, they are technological upgradations. which has resulted in our favour by enhancing the quality of technology used previously.

And if this news was true I would have imagined the world going crazy to find a solution. Remember the Y2K bug..!

Something as revolutionary as www doesnt die such a simple death.


By Recha Paliwal, HR Generalist, Australian Wool Innovation - Woolmark  | 05 08 2009 02:06:09 +0000
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With the advancement of new improved technology anything is possible. However I don't think the internet can be replaced in a year's time.

Presently, Internet is the single most popular facility in the world. It is not in any competition.

However there were talks about a year ago that internet could soon be made obsolete since the scientists who pioneered the internet have now built a lightning-fast replacement capable of downloading entire feature films within seconds. I am not sure what has happened to that innovation.

Can any of you regular browser imagine not having internet for even a day?


By Devi Kaladeen, Audit Manager, Health Sector Development Unit  | 05 07 2009 14:08:10 +0000
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No wayyyyyy  Gargii, where u got this news? World become so small because of net.

 We are so habitual of net that we can’t imagine that it will die in 2010.


By Mangala Shetty, Project coordinator  | 05 07 2009 12:28:07 +0000
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No.. I don't think internet will die in near future. Internet will surely survive untill some super fast technologies replaces it.


By Shaju George, Facilities/Construction Manager, IBS Software Services (P) Ltd  | 05 07 2009 12:02:16 +0000
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Hello,

 First question, what is basis of this news of Internet to die in 2010? How can we survive on Toostep then??? We will nt be able to share our thoughts??? :((

Jokes apart, internet is continously evolving thing. It has changed our lives but itself has underwent tremendous transformation, upgradation. So if internet traffic is becoming issue, in fact, information & knowledge sharing is bound to increase henceforth.Technologist are working on this field too to develop techniques for easier, wider yet smooth access latest internet technologies & trends. I dont think it is possible to see Internet's end so early. In fact it has just started to be different.

                       

 


By NITIN DEOLE, Exec-NPD- PETL(GREAVES COTTON LTD.)  | 05 07 2009 11:51:51 +0000
 
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