Will Sensex post negative return after the current budget?

i relly agree with u... but we cant expect the this govt will also do same.. from last 2 election there was same govt... but current senario is difft. govt is difft. FM is difft. so we cant pridict future market... may be govt goin to spport to the market or not goin to sopport. both the posibalities are there.. one other things are that our market are also depend on monsoon... if monsoon will be gud than there are also cahances to market grow.. bcoz if monsoon will gun which affect to the comodity market prices.. & inflation.. if actul inflation will go down than it will diffinatly support to our market..

If we look at budget from broder perspective, there has to be reform to stimulate our economy in better shape. Past record state that there has been always negetive impact on market post budget, but this time just as election result has changed the trend this could be another surprise coming to our way. adding more on that this time Finance minister has an advantage of having no pressure from any other party so there can be positive impact post budget on indian market. 

I agree with Miss joyti.yes there is a trend that the sensex correct after the Budget. I think that this year it will be different as the market will rise after the budget as  the FM will offer a strong budget for the indian economy.

Mr Gopalan appears to cover many things.  All I wish to say is that there will not be much for a bear impact after budget.  We expect stimulus, support for aam aadmi and steady reforms.  Our market will grow.  Short term bear rallies are expected but the bull doze is for all to see.

This time has congress won handsomely, still it will be very cautious & would like to show quick results early. They know how to treat the 'aam admi' and industries who compliment each other well. I am sure changes will be done as per the current requirements which in turn will also help the market to improve........

Yes I agree with you, unless the budget unveil a strong economic stimulus plan sensex will follow the trend. Sensex fell 3.4% after the interim budget. Unless economic impetus outweighs political gimmicks sensex will be shedding points. FII, institutional investors, mutual funds are all bullish and with a reform oriented budget I think sensex can break the post budget month jinx.

The most serious hurdle to free flowing optimism for the FM is the fiscal deficit. But he can take a 5 year perspective in the budget about Fiscal Deficit and chart a course of correction which can be gradual and achievable. The focus of the budget will be 'aam aadmi' which brought the UPA back to power and Congress with better numbers. Therefore, there is a political framework to the budget. There will be emphasis on reforms which may cheer the market. Disinvestment propositions may carry a tag which may give comfort to the market about fiscal deficit as well as a hope on privatisation. One can remember that due to announcement of elections, FM could not give the third package in the series of economic bailouts - now with the mandate on hand, there can be pronouncements in the nature of the 3rd package. Textile ministry is talking of creating 1 crore jobs, one can expect an announcement for this beleaguered sector. Infrastructure is a story already built into the market. FM should just endorse the view taken by the market. IT tax holiday may get extended in their respective SEZs. FDI norms may get significantly liberalised. Social sector spending by the Govt may boost sectors like FMCG, Automobiles in certain segments, Education services and Agriculture based industries to an extent. The subsidies are a huge drag on the economy : here, one really does not know what kind of change is going to be ushered in. But one can expect change in attitude without upsetting the apple cart completely so that the pro common man image is in tact. There has been an emphasis on banking consolidation to create the big banks. Budget may think of incentivising bank mergers, which again, is good for the stock market. It will be excellent if capital gains are exempted for deals within a particular cap, so that the inclusiveness of small investor and broadbasing of stock market in the domestic segment get a boost. Similarly, all IPO subscriptions can be fully exempted from Income Tax during the first year for IT assessees within a smaller gross taxable income. We need investors from this segment which will go a long way in creating wealth at these levels. There can be stringent regulatory norms about investor education and disclosures from corporates. Having said all this, it is difficult to expect budget to have a sustained effect independent of global cues, events impacting SENSEX 30 heavy weights like Reliance industries, effects of litigations on corporates and what FIIs happen to do that day. Still, at this point in time optimism outwits pessimism. The bulls should smile and try out their hopes during the pre budget rally and hang on during budget. If they don't, it may be bears trying out cynicism about the budget - it will be nice to see many of them run to cover themselves on that day! 

I agree with you Jyoti.

The FM is expected to deliver a budget full of incentives to industries, tax cuts, lot of infrastructure spending, lots of reforms...

Most important to know will be their approach towards disinvestment and the ways to reduce the Fiscal Deficit..

If all these things are through then the markets will be having a party and a long lasting one...