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Topic : Economic Growth
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Industry : Equity Research/AnalyticsFunctional Area : India(Markets)
Activity:  892 views;  last activity : 01 28 2011 06:29:34 +0000

India' economy grew at an annual rate of 9.4 per cent during the three years -- 2005 to 2008 -- with agriculture averaging around 5 per cent per year. India also survived the global meltdown of 2008-09 due to minimal exposure of the financial sector to the sub-prime lending, and domestic demand driven growth. India's average annual growth rate during the two years, 2008-2010, was likely to be around 7 per cent (in real terms), with the current fiscal year outperforming the last one by over one per cent. Favourable demographics, high savings rate, rising middle class, and underleveraged households suggest that domestic demand, and the economy, will continue to grow strongly. Taking a long-term view and assuming an exchange rate of Rs 46 to 1 US dollar, an annual growth rate of 7 per cent in 2009-10 and 8.5 per cent during 2010-16, the market sentiment being overly buoyant, an inflation of 6 per cent per year, the size of the Indian economy in nominal terms is likely to be: $1.250 trillion in 2009-10, $2.400 trillion in 2014-15, and $4.640 trillion in 2019-20. This implies a cumulative nominal annual growth of 14 per cent and an approximate four-fold increase in the coming decade. During 2009-10: The services sector would account for approximately 56 per cent of the Indian economy; The manufacturing and industries sector would contribute about 29 per cent; and Agriculture about 15 per cent.

 
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Between 2005 and 2008, both, the services and the industries sectors grew at approximately 14-15 per cent on a nominal basis and 9-11 per cent in real terms. These sectors are likely to grow between 15-16 per cent in the next six years.All these macro as well as micro economic factors, if sustained for the next five years, may push our growth to over 10.1%. With increasing EPS and revenue of major Indian companies, Sensex is expected to continue its upward rally and touch 50,000 by the end of 2015.


By Shankar Ganesh G P, Team Leader -(Technical)-Product Design & Development  | 04 17 2010 05:07:38 +0000
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I don't think so because as the market is growing mature the less fluctuation being seen on the sensex. Now it's impossible for the market to reach in 50000 points so early. Now the growth will be slow and steady. As far as reaching of market in 50000 it's not going to happen before 2030 even more late.
By shailesh , B.B.A student, kumaun university, ssj campus almora  | 01 28 2011 06:29:34 +0000
 
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