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Created by : Jyoti Rath, Sr. Associate, Barclays  | 08 18 2009 12:02:41 +0000
Industry : Equity Research/AnalyticsFunctional Area : India(Markets)
Activity:  395 views;  last activity : 07 06 2010 20:18:09 +0000

Its Swine Flu  every where and its real impact one will see in october during the second wave due to winter. As usual, stock markets studded with excessive liquidity are underestimating the real impact of weak monsoons and swine flu impact. WHO has officially declared Swine Flu as pandemic but it is showing its real impact these days. This is the first global Pandemic after a long time and we don’t know how it will behave in the second wave.

What do you think people, will Swine Flu have an effect on Indian stock market? And how?

 

 
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I think Swine flu will surely have an impact as it will reduce the consumption power of people as people generally spend less in times of Pandemics. This will be a severe blow to consumption related stocks which are already reeling under the impact of poor monsoons lately.  Stock markets always move on sentiment. It is difficult to estimate the impact of Swine Flu on Indian stock markets as per the reports it suggests that 1 crore Indians will be affected by Swine Flu in the next 4-5 months when the second wave begins.


By Jyoti Rath, Sr. Associate, Barclays  08 18 2009 12:12:53 +0000
 
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Stock market is a place where you trade with the world. The market was up even when mexico was bit by the swine flu bug. The Indian markets are maturing out to be a true trading platforms irrespective of these factors happening in the country.


By Ameya Nisal, Head of the Department, Eyeball Consultancy Service Pvt Ltd  08 18 2009 13:57:08 +0000
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Yes surely swine flu is going to effect Indian stock market but only few of the sectors. As mentioned in the article at present it is at very nascent stage once the winter come then it will make real impact. People will avoid going to public places, travelling etc. I think real market that is going to hit by swine flu are entertainment (sports, movies etc.), tourism, Big retail chain, Airline industry etc. 


By Deepak Agrawal, Consultant, Independent Consultant  | 09 05 2009 05:59:54 +0000
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Yes the Pharma stocks will gain, Hospitality, Retail, FMCG may lose..

With the Swine Flu spreading in India, i believe that all the good pharma companies would be working on a vaccine for Swine Flu, i believe that the pharma companies with good investment in research will be a good investment..

On the other other hand people are avoiding travel, public places, resturants, so these sectors may have a negative impact because of swine flu...


By Japan Shah, H.O.D, Oxford School of Management  | 08 29 2009 18:02:28 +0000
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hi when cancer which kills lakhs,tuberclosue which take away crores of lives,and other dissease which are lethal does not effect the stock market how would swineflu effect the market.

well what could effect the market is if all state government take decisions like maharastra state government and close the markets for one weak yes definately the stock markets would be effected becaus eit would effect the productivity and profitability of the companies.

it is all about economics.


By sandesh saboo, Research Associate/Analyst, saboo associates  | 08 22 2009 10:22:55 +0000
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I am prety sure abt this


By Debasish , Consultant, AB Global Partners  | 08 20 2009 06:40:59 +0000
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We should not forget the health problems and the panic caused by swine flu. Almost 22 people died and many other became ill which became a panic among the general public. Many industries and offices were temporarily closed because of that. Now, if industries are closed, it will anyway effect on share market due to lack of working hands....


By Jyoti Rath, Sr. Associate, Barclays  | 08 19 2009 11:46:14 +0000
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Yes swine flu will have an adverse effect on the market, it will slow down the general economic activity and industries like travel and tourism will be affected to a greater extend.

On the other hand like joshi sir said pharma and hospitals will gain. Overall I think it will have an effect, but is not going to be serious unless flue gets more serious.


By Padmanabhan R, Articled / Audit assistant, Finance student  | 08 18 2009 20:56:37 +0000
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I think, Yes. Pharma stocks gain, FMCG lose.

Usually its like war time. If rains fail, epidemics will spread easily. Climatic conditions spread easily due to unhygeinic conditions of the nature - clensing of the nature is very difficult. Also that, if rains start all of a sudden and stop abruptly, then also epidemics show their wild dances. Change in environment is the main reason.

As far as stock market is concerned, nonconfirmity of rains coupled with increasing crude prices are going to take toll of the situation, unless some miracles happen.

Advice is to keep money safe in the form of money presently. If you get the rates of Jnuary end again, start investing. Anyway, for INVESTORS, no need to panic sell. 


By taranath joshi, DGM Operations, EOL,  | 08 18 2009 14:12:53 +0000
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It may affect but not upto greater extent. Ofcourse shopping malls , schools, IT professionals ., are following some major steps but lets hope doctors play a major role in putting an end to it.

At present only RIL-RNRL case is the main thing which is affecting the sensex.


By C Nijagunaradhya, Planning engineer, Aarvee associates  | 08 18 2009 13:51:35 +0000
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a very little,it will be effective if many stock exchange members come under flue fever and that day has yet to come.


By SB DIKSHIT, STATE QUALITY MONITOR, U.P.R.R.D.A  | 08 18 2009 13:30:37 +0000
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Swine flu is more of a hyped subject rather than the subject virus itself

There is a hidden agenda to sell some materials in this flu business.Starting right from airport to streets.

Just look at it as any other viral attack. rest is advt and Marketing only


By Charles davison, Project Manager, Douglas OHI LLC  | 09 04 2009 17:35:21 +0000
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Dont believe on records . No body is sure that even there will be a second blow. Only 2000 people in the so called first blow got affected among the total population of approx.125crores.  Could you imagine that if it turns in to a epedemic????? The dying ratio will be more than the affected ratio. Think not only share market whole country will have to suffer. Who the hell will think about the share market my dear at that time. think again ...........


By abhishek Pandey, Territory Manager, DBS Cholamandalam Ltd  | 08 22 2009 08:49:33 +0000
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NO.

By the time of second wave, everyone would have acquired natural immunity and it won't be as severe.

Remember "Bird Flu" ?

Is anyone afraid of it now ??

So, you have your answer.

Swine Flu won't affect the stock market as a whole, but its SURELY GOING TO AFFECT THE STOCKS AND FORTUNES OF PHARMACEUTICALS COMPANIES WHO ARE ENGAGED IN MANUFACTURING OF ITS VACCINE AND RELATED MEDICINES !! 

Regards.


By RAJ KUMAR HANSDAH, Head/VP/GM-HR, JAL, Hindalco, SAIL  | 08 20 2009 19:22:30 +0000
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