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Created by : Leena Khade, Banc Assurance, Deutsche Bank  | 03 15 2010 11:20:32 +0000
Industry : Equity Research/AnalyticsFunctional Area : Equities(Markets)
Activity:  484 views;  last activity : 07 06 2010 20:18:09 +0000

From a past few months, it seems China is going to occupy the second rank after USA. Earlier we used to think like this for Japan. But China, because of its good hardwares, seems to grab this market very soon.

http://www.chuckypita.com/wp-content/uploads/chinese-renminbi-yuan-versus-american-dollar2.jpg

If history is any guide, there's a better than even chance that the "goodbye America, hello China" school of thought will prove as embarrassingly wrong as the 1980s assessment of the relative strengths of Japan and the United States. Long-term predictions tend to be more often wrong than right and the decline of the US is a topic of seasonal regularity.

China's economic power is more than that of United States. So, is there any chance that USA will lose its No.1 status to China?

 
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China still have to go a long way to be world's leading economic power. Its economy is less than a third of that of the US and GDP per head is one fourteenth of the US, roughly half that of Kazakhstan.

About a quarter of the world's economic output is produced by the United States, whose population is less than a fourth of China's 1.3 billion. So there's a very long way to catch up for a country beset by a variety of Third World problems, from lack of paved roads in many rural areas to water pollution so severe that 700 million people have to drink contaminated water every day. China is facing a surge of citizens aged over 60 for which the Communist-run system is not prepared. By 2050, China will have more than 438 million people over 60 and 100 million over 80.


By Leena Khade, Banc Assurance, Deutsche Bank  03 15 2010 11:40:21 +0000
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China is even today bigger than the US !

If you do not believe this , just look at the statements coming out of the US , and the statements coming out of China. China is today diplomatically threatening the US , something it could not think of doing 50 years back.

The Tibetan crisis erupted before the Olympic games in China , and there was a lot of pressure on President Obama not to attend the opening ceremony. He still did.

In fact , even Google's threat to withdraw from China , has died down.

It is a fact that today , not just the US , the whole world needs China , more than China needs the world. Just look at China's presence in Africa. It is everywhere. It supports the pariah government in Sudan ( inspite of Darfur ) and the world merely looks the other way.

The Chinese people have a nationalistic fervour , which no American has. If today China convinces all its scientists and other intellectuals working in the US , to come back to China , the US may well subside to a second rate power.

Consider that China has more than a 100 dollar billionaires. Today China is booming on all fronts , except for human rights. And the world is too weak to tackle China on this front.


By K. NARAYAN, None, None  | 03 16 2010 06:27:19 +0000
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No...i have to say there's a big but too during the time china is using its hackers and by sending virus to various important establishments, they will soon have many important information of various countries and the threat of it selling may cause certain ups and down in big economies which may result into china pop up as one of the biggest economic power...it will be the result of outsourcing to china in various fields and let us not forget too much of younger population resides in developed countries of Europe, USA, Russia...So there's a threat and its genuine...

 

 


By Manish Gaurav, Asst. Management Professor, Sanjevani Institute of Technology & Management  | 03 16 2010 06:11:17 +0000
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The dumping of dollar by china in the world market is aggressive enough to suggest that China is catching up. Again the lack of sentiment against dollar value is a threat to the mighty itself. so China has got the potential to pose a great treat in the future if not now. The only problem is that after the recession and dollar debacle, China is the second largest looser after the US itself as it has got the maximum investment and a greater exposer in US bonds. So in a short run US may be safe but the leader is already been challenged and the day is not far away when we see Yen is the world currency.


By Sambit , Project Manager, Azurepower India  | 03 15 2010 12:17:24 +0000
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The big boys of U.S.A are still strong with their dollars, the recession has woken up the countries who were following U.S with have learnt a lesson of how the economies are still depended upon the world power. True it has now a competiter like China for instance, but has a very long way to go.

A democratic country is more flexible than a communist, as we have seen the debacle of U.S.S.R, though being a superpower, so China needs to open up its doors for the rest of the world possibly then it might come in parellel with U.S. India to me seems a more vibrant country so in fact we can be a   be superpower in 20 years.


By rasik upadhye, dyputy manager, idbi fortis  | 03 17 2010 08:28:23 +0000
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As we, the Indians, are not fed either by China or by America, we have no interest in such debates. So, we sit on the fence and observe what is happening around the globe.

These two majors may fight either with their respective Foreign Exchanges or with 'war-heads' or both to become the super power. However, the USA, it appears has been loosing its might.

Back home, India is the next global destination. WE are the natural choice, may gain importance by virtue of our own strengths. Let us concentrate on ourselves leavong behind China and the USA.


By ASOKE KUSARI, Domestic Private Banking-Executive/Manager, A large leading PSU Bank - India  | 03 16 2010 16:31:28 +0000
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I support your view that China is miles or leagues behind in every aspect of society when compared to USA .First it is technologically miles behind USA ,politically speaking there is communism which is another form of legal mafia or oligarchy which doesnt support free enterprise and china doesnt have any industry that has arisen from the country .It has not given anything worth mentioning to the world ,whereas USA has given us electricity ,aeroplanes ,nuclear power , Computers ,Internet and many more .in China the education is not research oriented .Mao has killed 2000 students who protested to have democracy in China ,which can only happen in China .Economically ,china's manufacturing industry has been a new world economic order of USA but has nothing to do with china .


By SHASHI KUMAR G, Senior Consultant, CMS  | 03 16 2010 16:12:01 +0000
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China had implemented the one child policy for such a long time that the average age of china is above 60yrs so over the years it does not have youngsters to continue the development and aggressiveness in the market. On the other hand India has every chance of becoming number one only if the brain drain is stopped and enough measures are taken for continued development of the country and cleansing of the political atmosphere


By kanukurthy sudershanrao, Operations Manager, Andhra Bank  | 03 15 2010 15:53:51 +0000
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See now a day’s economy is changing rapidly so it can't be number one or number two. What I visualize is there will be synchronization among world economies and i in my language call that as "BALANCE OF NUMBERS". There will be dramatic changes in consumer behavior and other aspects like contribution of an individual towards economy. With the current globalization scenario it will be a collaborative economy rather than number one or number two.


By Amit Midha, Freelancer, Freelancer  | 03 15 2010 12:40:43 +0000
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