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Created by : Veena Gupta, Analyst, Blackstone Group  | 03 22 2010 12:04:01 +0000
Industry : Equity Research/AnalyticsFunctional Area : Equities(Markets)
Activity:  207 views;  last activity : 07 06 2010 20:18:09 +0000

India's economic growth strategy is hinging on five key interlinked macroeconomic assumptions: inflation, interest rates, the monsoon, crude oil prices and developed economies not relapsing into recession. This is because economic circumstances have swung between extremes after the world economy plunged into a crisis of the magnitude last witnessed in the Great Depression of the 1930s.

In India’s case, the drought of 2009 queered the pitch further, even as it has had to face up to the firming of international commodity prices, particularly crude oil. The bigger concern is that inflation, after being concentrated in food products for the last 18 months, is spilling over into manufactured products. February data revealed that inflation of manufactured items accelerated to 7.4% from 1.6% in October. The commitment of Budget 2010 to return to fiscal prudence depends crucially on the country’s ability to sustain and later accelerate economic growth.

So users, do u think inflation would mar India's growth story?

 
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Veena, in your intro to the discussion you have listed 5 points. Let us look at the current state of these five points.

1. inflation: above 16% ....it is literally making even food out of reach of quite a few middle income groups.

2. interest rates: climbing....car and house loans are harder to come buy.

3. monsoon: last year was not all that great.

4. oil prices - crude or refined - just rose by almost 10%

Need i say more. india may be becoming more and more developed.....but if its people find it difficult to live in india, then how much of a success story is it?

It is beyond shadow of a doubt the need of the hour - to control and bring down food prices before they destroy the development achieved so far.


By RAMESH KANDADAI, Principal Consultant, ARM Consultants  03 23 2010 07:03:09 +0000
 
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I want to add further to it that it was expected during the recession that after pumping of money in the market would increase inflation.& as per expectation it had increased.This is the problem not only india & china is facing but the so called developed countries like US,EU countries will face in the coming future after coming out from recession.China had already  increased the interest rate & RBI just now had increased the repo & reverse repo rate by 25bps.& it is expected that it will increase further in future.

but it  will not effect the growth story of india.

 


By piyush kumar, Executive Assistant, Ambuja Cement Ltd.(Holcim Group)  | 03 23 2010 10:02:31 +0000
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Mr. Kandadai and Ravindra, second you both here completely!!


By Makrand Bhave, Marketing & MICE, WIZCRAFT International  | 03 23 2010 09:55:04 +0000
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agreed Ravindra. What I meant by monsoon being bad is that last year it was judged by agriculturers as being below par that is not enough. While i am no expert agriculture specialist, I do own some lands which i keep cultivated and this is the feedback i got.

As far as the prices increasing is concerned, well....there so much of it happening that it is hard to tell which contributed to what.

Thanks for the comments.


By RAMESH KANDADAI, Principal Consultant, ARM Consultants  | 03 23 2010 08:38:10 +0000
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Dear Jyothi,

Show the growth graphs to those sleeping hungry.

Overloading one side of a truck can only lead it to only one place which surely is not ahead or taking anywhere. Hope you agree...  


By Ravindra Sharma, Managing Consultant, CHEF-India  | 03 23 2010 08:21:51 +0000
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Dear Mr Kandadai,

Nicely analysed response and in fact the crop last year did not cause the prices to rise is as well established. 

A country where A Farmer is unhappy and Yet food prices are rising.

A Manufacturer is unhappy and only those bring in Cheap replacements from neighbor are surviving and yet again prices are high.

Deaths are happening due starvation and tonnes of grain is served to rodents.

City of Gurgaon called the developing face is surviving 16 hours of power cuts what a farmer or manufacturer in remote India must be getting is difficult to imagine.

And yet some are continually talking of GROWTH Story?

If a minuscule part does become richer at the cost of majority it surely is neither going to be lasting nor can it be termed a growth story. 

Sorry to be sounding pessimist yet facts are never designed to be rosy especially if we fail to acknowledge a problem as a problem and through ....forever missing the correction path.


By Ravindra Sharma, Managing Consultant, CHEF-India  | 03 23 2010 08:16:37 +0000
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I agree with this statement. While the recovery in growth has proceeded broadly along expected lines, the inflationary pressures have intensified beyond our baseline projection. In fact, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) had in its January policy review, warned that inflation from high food prices could be transmitted over time to non-food items.


By Veena Gupta, Analyst, Blackstone Group  | 03 22 2010 12:04:01 +0000
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Inflation won't effect India's growth story. We have seen this last year only. India was also effected but still it recovered from the inflation and today it is growing in a much faster speed than that of western countries.


By Jyoti Rath, Sr. Associate, Barclays  | 03 23 2010 06:20:53 +0000
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