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Started by : Gandhi Rajan, Sr. Associate, ICICI Securities   10 16 2008 09:18:12 +0000
Industry : Investment BankingFunctional Area : Valuation(Corporate Finance)
Activity:  24 views;  last activity : 07 06 2010 20:18:09 +0000

What are your views. Please discuss

 
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1 India is doing well
2 manage risk to lessen impact

India is doing well

idea posted by Gandhi Rajan Sr. Associate, ICICI Securities
I was one of the few who believed we were decoupled from the US economy. And I believe I am more or less right. Although we HAVE been affected, we have recovered well and are managing stay afloat. We may have a long way to go, but we are way better than before. I am impressed that the indian economy has held out as well as it has!
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Further we had very poor infrastructure in terms of Road and Rail Network. Vajpayee goverment did a lot of work developing the rail / road infrastructure. It caused a major boom in Cement and Steel Industry. But then came the UPA Government which did nothing on this front. There would have absolutely no recession had it we would have invested in developing our infrastructure.

Lots of rail rail links were planned but none implemented. There is no visible / real development in the economy but if you see the budgetory allocations and expenditures we find that a lot of money has been wasted in un productive works.

So India is a self sustaining economy. Our economy do not survive on US or Europe but on our own.

We have absolutely no problem. The problem of earlier excess flow of dollers in the economy causing run away inflation. And then a very sqeezed credit situation was the major cause of current situation. Had it, we would not have let the doller go down viz a viz rupee when there was excessive flow of doller we would have helped our exporters to grow.

But the exporters got in to trouble as the doller exchange rate fluctation made their exports un remunerative. And later on when the exports started going down, there was a sudden out flow of dollers due to very weak or tumbling US Economy. Now when this paradox hit the Indian economy we could not survive and fall down. But nevertheless we were not hurt. WE WILL GROW. AND DEFINITLY MORE IF A MORE PRUDENT GOVERNMENT COMES AFTER THIS GENERAL ELECTIONS.

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India is doing well. India should have done better. India can be the best. Why?

Because we are the only country who has resources to tackle the recession. We are a under developed economy, In terms of Power shortage we are the worst. We should have taken steps to put up power plants. Earlier the Vajpayee Government was smart to understand and our Chartered Accountant brother Shri Suresh Prabhu did a lot of work when he was the Power / Energy Minister.

But then came the new Congress government which did not do any thing in last five years.

Had it done some thing in Power Sector we would have had good quality power to support our manufacturing units.

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manage risk to lessen impact

idea posted by Varun Sood Associate, JP MorganChase
The Indian economy will be affected for sure. But not as much as other countries like HK, Singapore, Taiwan, S Korea, China etc which are too much dependent on exports. Anyway China has already started concentrating on its internal market, so the impact wont be much.

The first impact in India will be for the IT companies. Infosys, TCS, Wipro, Saytam etc get a lot of business from the BFSI (Banks, Financial services, Insurance) sector. This is the sector that is affected the most.More risk management needs to be done to save it from future onslaughts

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