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Activity:
76 views;
last activity : 01 01 2011 18:59:25 +0000
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Lack of data to forecast
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IT IS ALWAYS UNCERTAIN
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Change in Market Conditions
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Forecasting never fails
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WRONG PLANNING OR WRONG IMPLEMENTATION
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Lack of Data...
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depends upon past data and made by people
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Forecasting fails cause its all about assumptions...
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Forecasting is always uncertain.
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Inefficient Corporate ..
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Because of the unfounded belief in Gaussian curve
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Wrong Choice of Method
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not analysing competitors forecast and comparing.
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why forcasting fails
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Not sufficiently scienntific
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Turbulent socio-economic & political system
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lack of proper implementation
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Its a self defeating prophecy
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future reality dose not meet with future assumption which u make in ur forecasting
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Forecasting should be based on viable data that truly project the future trends. If forecasting is not done properly then everything goes as waste. So, many a times forecasting fails because companies don't have proper information to support their assumptions. |
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Yes, very true.
Though forecasting will not give you a perfect result but atleast it will take to you the nearer to the perfect result provided we have an data which needs to be properly interpreted with proper tools, thus we can minimize the risk by forcasting but cannot guarantee a perfect result
With proper data and foresight forecast should not fail but we generally do not asses the both at a given time hence the forecast fails.
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Forecasting is related to prediction of the future which is always uncertain. The ever changing trends in the market factors which has the major influence on any type of business can not be accurately judged. It is very difficult to gauge pulse of the market or to study the consumer behavior in a particular segments.However, the market forecasting based on certain past performance and the available data may definitely help to have some idea and assumptions on how to make the next move with some strategy. So forecasting gives some basic ground rules to proceed further. Hence forecasting becomes a good tool to know what to do next, when to do, how to do, and why to do etc despite its uncertainty. Thanks for the referral Ms.Sheetal jadhav. |
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I agree with Mr. Natteraja that forecasting means uncertainty itself. Expert managers or person will usually fail to make exact forecasting due to more dependability on Micro Forecasting. We introduce new products in market time to time through R&D Dept with collected data under macro forecasting process. But usually our base is that all major things will remain same. But it may be change.. Let say an example:- Any kind of outsourcing work depend on international policy & it can change any time due to any reason. Environmental factors, Markets trends are also the part of Macro Forecasting which can affect any time on our forecasting.
Forecasting is a difficult area of management. Most managers believe they are good at forecasting. However, forecasts made usually turns out to be wrong. The forecasting process is a critical one for most businesses. Key decisions that are derived from a sales forecast include:
a] Employment levels required.
b] Promotional mix.
c] Investment in production capacity.
The MACRO FORECASTING is related to forecasting the markets in total. This is about determining the existing level of market demand and considering what will happen to market demands in future.
The MICRO FORECASTING is related to detailed unit sales forecast. It is about determining product's market share in a particular industry and considering what will happen to that market share in future.
Hence market demand for a product is the total volume that would be bought by a defined customer group in a defined geographical area in a defined time period in a given marketing environment.
HENCE I HAVE TAKEN THIS STAND, BUT NOT AGAINST FORECASTING.
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Forecasting is based on major 3 factors, 1. Past data, 2. Present data and 3. Future outlook of the market condition. Most of the forecast fails in the companies due the third factor. Here comes the capacity of a company how fast it can adapt the sudden changes in the market condition to steer through its plan. Failing to take swift decision according to the changing condition lead to failure of the plan. Cause, the plan was made with an assumed market condition, once the market condition changed the plan should also change whereas most company procrastinate the change thinking that market will come back to same condition again. But! Time has moved!
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In my opinion Forecasting never fails. Desired accuracy may vary with time, effort level & desired knowledge.
Time-- Forecast of Vehicle sales in terrorism effected area. Result will vary for Kashmir (Indo-Pak) & Israel -Palestinian.
Effort Level - Biscuit industry sales forecast for next 10 years with limited budget. Data range will be short & only one sided focus.
Desired Knowledge -- Automobile forecast; Data range high, all linear & non linear curve are correct, trend analysis complete. But economic forecasting of country compiled but lack of knowledge on upcoming war. Vehicle sale will be high but in place of commercial vehicles army vehicle will be in demand.
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One does not get the expected results either because of wrong planning based on insufficient or wrong information or because of faulty implementation of a perfect plan. |
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One can have knowledge that when u hav enough data. May be the reason that collecting info or data from devices is dependent. When u analyse the data u may feel correct, infact one should understand that in all possible angles data must be collected for proper results. When data is correct then result will be perfect...
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Forecast fails because it is based on past data and made by people , everyone has its own approach to select and collect the data , analyze the data and make forecast.Analyst sometime mix there personal emotions while forecasting. There is no mechanism to measure the accuracy of forecast.....
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yes i agree with you sheetal forecasting fails
The main reason behind it is the assumptions that we made from out past experience,
n also the uncertainty of business environment in future...
no body predicts what will happen in this period of stiff competition..
But if we can forecast properly with proper analysis..
could make a difference...
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Forecasting is based on past and present data with a mix of future vision which requires personal emotions. What matters it what percentage of success is there in forecasting and actual results.
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I think in forecasting corporate plays an vital role, and if forecasting is failing (it may cause that particular company to get seized) then it is a total failure of its corporates, Its totally their responsibility to get a viable data (from past) and process it keeping in mind the future trends (possibilities), and then forecasting, wrong forecasting can send the whole company into failure, for eg. due to wrong forecasting a company prepares and launches a total wrong product which will definitely lead the company into total loss... Forecasting requires a lot of experience, analysis, data collection, brain storming, and future mapping tools. All this task should be efficiently performed by Corporate only.
Thanks n Regards,
Santosh Jadhav |
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It happens all the time, and the worst of the worst is giving the wrong assumptions a chance to steer a company into a bright future. The worst of all is assuming the Gaussian curve averages to be a representation of a random process. Unlike Nature, which is conservation driven, business is not, and Gauss has nothing to do with it. Plotting the events in business into a probability density chart DOES NOT yield normal distribution at all.
Examples are plenty, and the most recent one is a belief that Telecoms will have to invest a lot in backhaul to meet the near future requirements, while the reality refuses to comply with such ideas. Guess whose idea was that :lol:
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History repeats itself. This is the basis of time series & causal forecasting methods. In my view, focus should be on present & future market dynamics while forecasting. A domain expert can be for this purpose. Quantitativemethods like time series & causal should be a supporting tool for validating the estimate.
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Forecasting fails,primarily not factoring into account competitor's strategy.In addition to forecast on a realistic basis,say quarterly basis and strive to achieve
for it result in less failures.
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Forcasting doesnot fail if done with the past trends.However due to some unforseen situations,like a big conglomerate bankruptsy or a natural calamity would contribute to the failure of forcasting.
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Mostly such forecasts driven by ones own judgements and considering various favourable factors not critically evaluating unfavourable elements in the market and ones own weaknesses
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In a world where untold miseries and woes that cripple the entire world, how the forecasting would work. We are corrupt in many ways. Manipulation of data and fudged accounts will only force your forecasting wrong!
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One of the main reasons your planning or forecasting fails because, of the no proper implementations of those ideas is done at ground,it happens in most of the company's the plane big,but the wont be able to keep that plane going on right track, in the end you wont get the result which you expected,So proper forecasting and planing with proper follow-up of those ideas, will always gives you the result which you expect.
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The forecasting itself affects the outcomes and more often than not it stimulates a behaviour which results in defeat of a prophecy. |
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Forecasting cannot be always correct...............
bcoz future is uncertain.................
and u forecast the future by using past data's and some assumption about future...........
and ur assumptions does not the future reality.......
then ur forecast will worng.....
and lack of data may also cause for fail of forecasting.
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