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Wall street Fighters

 
Started by : Alok Kumar Singh, Sr. Associate, UBS   10 27 2008 15:22:08 +0000
Industry : Investment BankingFunctional Area : Movers & Shakers(Markets)
Keywords : Bank Go Down Fast LEHMAN
Activity:  8 views;  last activity : 07 06 2010 20:18:09 +0000

Financial markets can be punishing and reversal of fortunes can be dramatic. More so, if an institution is overleveraged — when loan and investment books are much, much bigger than its capital. But a giant like Lehman was never thought to drown but it did. So there are some serious issues that need to be discussed.


 
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1 Domino effect
2 Disclosure Issues
3 Minimize Turmoil

Domino effect

idea posted by Ashim Chowdhury Associate, ICICI Securities
Suppose Lehman faces a redemption and has to repay another bank it has borrowed from. If it sells the mortgage-backed bonds, whose prices have fallen, it will not raise as much as was earlier expected. So, it sells some of the other good assets or bonds which may have nothing to do with mortgages. But since the bank starts dumping these assets, prices of these bonds also dip. This is when the crisis spreads from sub prime to prime.
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by Gandhi Rajan, Sr. Associate, ICICI Securities  | 10 27 2008 15:23:08 +0000

The only point that I would like to add in here is the strange accounting of bonds and derivatives like mortgage-backed securities. All banks are required to mark-to-market (MTM) their investments. So, if the price of an instrument falls, the difference between the price at which it was bought and the current market price has to be provided — meaning, it has to be deducted from the earnings. So, a drop in price leads to the MTM loss. So this is the bigger problem which really has deepened the crisis.


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Disclosure Issues

idea posted by Alok Kumar Singh Sr. Associate, UBS
There are some disclosure issues: Lehman, in its last conference call with investors, gave no clue that it was actually on the brink. An investment bank uses its proprietary book (own money) to lend others and invest. It started with the sub prime crisis. Banks like Lehman, buy mortgage loans from other banks and then package them to sell bonds against the loan pool. Often they add cash to make the loan pool more attractive, so that the bonds can be sold at a higher price. Such disclosure issues is what I think made the collapse inevitable.


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by Gandhi Rajan, Sr. Associate, ICICI Securities  | 10 27 2008 15:22:40 +0000

Suppose mortgage was earning 6%, these bonds are sold at 4%. The difference is the spread which the investment bank earns. By selling these structured bonds, it raises money and frees capital. But when homebuyers started defaulting, these bonds lost their value. It all began like this, and then the virus spreads across markets.

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Minimize Turmoil

idea posted by Ashim Chowdhury Associate, ICICI Securities

No easy answer to that. Maybe, some of the accounting norms need to be changed, so that the definition of MTM gets narrowed down. Besides, to stop banks from going overboard, capital requirement may have to be raised for derivatives position. But all this may be easier said than done.

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