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Started by : Kausik Panda, Sr. Associate, ICICI Securities   09 26 2008 15:00:24 +0000
Industry : Investment BankingFunctional Area : Strategy Execution(Strategy & Execution)
Activity:  322 views;  last activity : 07 06 2010 20:18:09 +0000

Every one is talking about US financial crisis and its impact on global economy. If the American economy collapsed or went into rapid decline? what will be the scenario? Could this mean the changing of the world order?

 
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1 We now need an investment mela now - inviting Janardhan Poojary!
2 will not affect indians
3 Economy will work
4 Huge Global Impacts
5 I don't think so.
6 The ecnomies which directly or indirectly dependent on US will get affected
7 Good for India
8 STRONG ECONOMIES SUFFER ONLY FOR A SHORTER PERIOD OF TIME
9 New area of investment in India will Increase.
10 One can only speculate
11 If not collapse, India should take a lesson

We now need an investment mela now - inviting Janardhan Poojary!

idea posted by SR Sham Sunder CEO/MD/Director Technoaid

Present state of American economy was aptly described on TV yesterday.  It is capitalism without capital. 

On the other hand, our so called conservative banking is so cautious in lending that manufacturing is at 1%+ yesterday.  It is gloomy if our investment managers simply withdraw from the stock market and plan trips to Goa! 

India is in an excellent position today, if our investors do not chicken out.  Would George Bush have gone out of the way in clearing the nuclear deal, if all was well in America?  If Manmohan Singh takes ten proposals to US and Europe, he can succeed since India is now the apple of the world's eye! 

We should now show to the world that India can withstand the impact of the crisis and show growth here.  This is what America did some decades before and the world invested its money there.  We have an opportunity to replicate such success. 

Perhaps this is the time for a Janardhan Poojary and his loan/investment (productive investment - not freebee) Mela.  Any takers?

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by sujit Kumar, Marketing Manager, Wipro Peripherals  | 06 12 2009 10:19:29 +0000

exactly, thanks for sharing. Nic article indeed.

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I support this.. India will attract investments and business.

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by hemchand jaichandran, Consultant in Finance  | 04 30 2009 13:37:42 +0000

I agree. It is wrong to state that Indian Banks too have been careless in lending. PSBs with their trained restraint have avoided impulsive lending. The results can be seen even during this period of recession. With whole hearted support from the top management the Indian Bank Manager can still proove to be the saviour of many ailing SMES, even today.

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will not affect indians

idea posted by Ajay Ziz Dy. Registrar,, University of Jammu

we indians have one thing self control .

transition from pizza hut to vada paav is not difficult for us.

har har mahadev

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by RAVI SHANKAR, Manager - Key Accounts  | 11 16 2009 14:51:26 +0000

I agree with Mr. Ajay Zaz, We Indians have still a good thing that we are very much conservative with our earnings and our expenses. Because Indians are savings at least 30 - 35 % of their total earnings and this is the backbone of the Indian Financial growth.

Har Har Mahadev Sir.

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by Esha Johar, Risk Analyst, Irevna  | 05 09 2009 08:53:04 +0000

I don't think so Indian will be affected ,as our economy is in developing stage.And the policies pursude by our government & RBI will able to stand in front of this crisis

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Due to the sound policies pursued by our Government and RBI we will be able to withstand the crisis originated in US. In the long term,  we may share the centre stage with few other countries to dominate the world economy.  At the same time I  express my admiration for the humorous remarks of  Mr Azay Ziz " We Indians have self control and can easily transistion from Pizza hut to vadapav - Hara hara mahadev".

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Economy will work

idea posted by Kausik Panda Sr. Associate, ICICI Securities
I feel even if the American economy collapsed, it will be a temporary phenomenon and it will be corrected in few months. It does not mean that America will immediately conquer some rich country. By following correct economic measures it can come to the previous position...
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by Japan Shah, H.O.D, Oxford School of Management  | 05 08 2009 05:47:07 +0000

I agree to the idea that the Economy will will work. If the american economy collapses, there wil be impact on the India economy, but if we see that Indian companies have shifted their focus from Us to Europe, china and Japan.

Thus Indian economy will go on well...

0
  

india is on sound footing.  economy is doing well very well except here and there some demand constraits, supply chain improved a lot.  What we have to do shift our focus on china, japan are good markets still untapped for long time even pakistan is good for doing business.

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American banks totally forgotten banking norms and practices bent of going mindlessly sub-prime loan exposure beyond their means which is unaccpetable that show total out of wood mode of loan dispensation without adequate control mechanism in place, capital adequacy norms, like we have SLR/CRR portfolios unchecked over there.  There is frenchized lending upheavel without verifying propensity to recover from the loanee that something unimaginable in american context.  They have tendency just open an account bank will take care of all needs of the customer starting from schooling, holiday finance, housing, and other social expenditure of an individual without constantly verifying the loanee's track record of financial soundness.

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Huge Global Impacts

idea posted by Darpan Sinha Tech Architect, Royal Bank of Scotland
We all are connected with each other in many ways the recent crisis have proven the same that no economy can grow alone or fall alone so it will have a very deep rooted impact on the world
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by jairaj shyam prasad, Production Manager, BOSCH Ltd  | 05 01 2009 14:42:53 +0000

yes Darpan, i agree with you.but don't you think we would be still in safer side if we were not accepted liberlisation/globalisation poliies in the past?

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I don't think so.

idea posted by Mathew Cherian Research Associate/Analyst, Western Michigan University

 American economy is very resilent and we cannot see it collapse so easily. One should notice the shocks hitting the economy from the 90's continuosly. Wars in Serbia, in North Africa(Sudan), 9/11, Afghanistand and Iraq, oil price hikes etc;. Then income degeneration of the people along with this like Universities deprived off budgetary allocation, export of local jobs to foreign shores, outsourcing manufacturing etc;. 

Despite all this their financial innovation kept pace with the need of the times and may be something went wrong in the implementation of it. Despite this they haven't reported a dip in gdp, only job losses and incease in unemployment insurance claims. So it is not even in big recession per se may be a temporary dip in economic activity. Some banks failed ofcourse which might turn around in a short while.

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The ecnomies which directly or indirectly dependent on US will get affected

idea posted by V.Durga Rao Private Attorney/Lawyer, V.DURGA RAO
If America falls many countries fall and especially the countries dependent on US will feel the heat straightway. Example is the policy decision of president elect of US Barrack Obama. He is likely to discourage the firms in US which will outsource work and it affects the countries like India. We may not critise the policy of barrack obama as he is concerned with his country. Like wise, obviouly, if America falls, then the countries which usually depend on America i one way or other tend to get affected. Since America was leading the world and ensured that most of the countries participate in globalisation, many countries will fall if America falls. Interestly, America is facing a situation wherein it has to act against its global policies like globalisation.
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Good for India

idea posted by Saratvamsi Sathuluri Branch Manager/Regional Manager, Barclays Finance
There would be strategic shift in focus from badly beaten markets to relatively uneffected like us. All though there is an air of caution which is prevailing, but the cloudly will clear soon. Our bourses will start leading the rallies around the world very soon. India will truly Shine.
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by SR Sham Sunder, CEO/MD/Director Technoaid  | 12 28 2008 16:50:50 +0000

I agree

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STRONG ECONOMIES SUFFER ONLY FOR A SHORTER PERIOD OF TIME

idea posted by Asooda ali Student, islamic university of science and technology

AMERICAN ECONOMIES COLLAPSE DOES NOT MEAN THAT OTHER ECONOMIES WILL ALSO GET COLLAPSED YEH  PROBLEM WILL OCCUR BUT ONLY FOR FOR A SHORTER PERIOD OF TIME.STRONG ECONOMIES WITH A STRONG CUSHION AT THEIR BACK SURVIVE I MEAN TO SAY ECONOMY WITH GOOD FUNDAMENTALS  

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New area of investment in India will Increase.

idea posted by Amit wadhwa Senior Consultant, C & W Law Associates

If American economy cllapsed, it will effect globally but there is always a new morning after a dark night. Currently Market in India is grooming up muh faster then other countries which is the great sign and will increase more opportunity of investment in India.

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One can only speculate

idea posted by Santosh Bhosle Associate, IFCI
The effect would be global. One can only speculate what the actual results would be but a collapse of the American economy would be devastating. I think there is a misconception that the only impact would be on America but that point of view is over-simplified.
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If not collapse, India should take a lesson

idea posted by ASOKE KUSARI Domestic Private Banking-Executive/Manager, A large leading PSU Bank - India

Whether we want or not, USA economy is a big economy and its (sudden ?) fall may affect all the economies of the globe including India. In some cases it may happen in a big way and for some, the impact may be negligible. Further, it is now "Global Economy" and the reaction, we may predict, may be a 'chain reaction'.

So, what we do ? We take a lesson. We may not be over-dependend on a single economy/country. We go in for a "spread" - spread the risk in other economies also. But before venturing abroad, we let our own domestic economy grow, grow fast ( .. and faster), so that our products and services be consumed internally first.

Remember, our advantages :

  • we have a vast population most of which are young
  • ours is an old civilisation, known to the world 
  • we have the mentality of adopting to 'scarcity and abandence' ( .. Burger .. or dal-rooty ?)
  • our talent pool is vast ( some finishing-touch may be required, if the NRIs our counted - enormous )
  • we have the "highest" Savings Rate in the world ( a bit .. timid to spend .. good )
  • our hinterland is vast - so many un-tapped areas till now ( we are a bit slow .. 'kam-chore' ?)
  • our is a Democracy ( too many openions may mar rapid growth .. then let it be slow  .. )
  • we have so many languages BUT quite easy in English
  • our students are very strong in Math, Science, all have basics in Computer

         xxxxxxxxxxxxx

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