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Started by : Jyoti Rath, Sr. Associate, Barclays   08 26 2009 08:19:55 +0000
Industry : Equity Research/AnalyticsFunctional Area : India(Markets)
Activity:  281 views;  last activity : 07 06 2010 20:18:09 +0000

I think after the all the global economic meltdown and the recession that everybody is talking about has seen a great change as there is no more talks on the lines of recession these days as it was 6 months ago, The human cost borne by creditors, investors, entrepreneurs and employees, as also society at large has been unprecedented and in sheer scale and intensity. Right now the situation is that the worst of the crisis is most probably behind us thanks to the liquidity pumped into markets by many banks around the world.

And moreover people were finding all the negative aspects of the crisis period and nobody had thought of taking some important things out from the crisis, like what they learned from this meltdown, even though it may be a bit too early to talk on these things but we need to move on and analyze things.

So what are the lessons that one learnt during this crisis??  Would like to know my fellow members views on this...

 
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1 2 3 4 5
1 Superior Lending skills
2 Understanding of the macro economics
3 Newer Risk management techniques
4 Thoughtlessly proactive academia and journalists and naming exapansion as bubble
5 Applying Conservating Investment Strategy
6 What American Investment Professionals learned !
7 there is a opportunity in adversity
8 We actually learned very litte - because now everything will be okay
9 Knowledge of Economics
10 Lack of affinity to public
11 Human being is responsible
12 Improper use of knowledge
13 Life, limit and inevitability
14 basic standard procedures to be implemented in lending
15 recission
16 Pure swadeshi industries had never suffered any recession or eco meltdown
17 control about spending habitis
18 The System is Fragile

Superior Lending skills

idea posted by Jyoti Rath Sr. Associate, Barclays

Acording to me a lesson well learnt is that lending requires superior skills in assessing and monitoring the creditworthiness of borrowers on a regular basis. The realisation that one cannot reduce the credit risks of a pool of debt obligations only by slicing them into segments with different risk characteristics is certainly a key takeaway from the crisis. Emerging facts on the ground relating to the borrowers and the broad economy need to be factored into credit assessments and this cannot be entirely substituted by an abject reliance on credit rating agencies. Surely people learned this in a hard way so the assesment made here should be really good and not just average basis, the creditworthiness of borrowers should be monitored regularly.

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by Mathew Cherian, Research Associate/Analyst, Western Michigan University  | 08 27 2009 17:50:07 +0000

Padmanabhan, in retrospective analysis one is influenced by the reductionists bias and anchoring bias where ones prejudice and the outcomes of recent events can influence our analysis. Since things gone the wrong direction we will alwyas look for the culprit and we will definitely find some like those who wanted to lead luxurious life etc;. I think these were late entrants and earlier innovators were just buying homes for themselves. There were many outlying events but they cannot be considered as representative example of all those home buyers 260 mn of them out wf which only 99mn were subprime and of which only 15% defaulted.

I am not saying that what you said or Jyothi said is wrong the whole world thinks so then biases and herding effects can be prejudicing and obscuring the real truth. American workers are overzelous and all are to maintain certain standard of work on a day to day basis and the academicians and the journalists were only doing their job. It is not only extra incentives that make them work it is the differentiation of labor which is well planned in the system there where by a worker is emotionaly and physicaly conditioned to deliver and that is the only way economies can be prosperous. So sometimes mishaps occur of somone overdoing things rather than showing the right restraint which can cause lesser harm or they should leave it to the regulators to face the trouble. I think this is also one lesson we all learned unless we have proper materials to back our arguments we should not interfere in the works of the regulators which many did and there we are the whole world facing the consequences. Humans do have greed and then this is another story and another theory.  I think it is only the basic theory of economics in play people doing things based on expectations.

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by Padmanabhan R, Articled / Audit assistant, Finance student  | 08 27 2009 15:37:34 +0000

Dear Sir,  thanks for sharing this valuable piece of information. of course your point of ( and I agree) media overheating the situation is right, after all they need mover viewership. Sir here I am just supporting Jyothi sir’s view.

But I still believe that there was too much risk like Jyothi sir said. In the past consumption in us economy was highly correlated to rise in wealth and many times rate of savings touched zero figure. Regarding subprime crisis I also believe  they were taking extra risk, majority of the mortgages were adjustable rate and once the fall started they started setting rates  higher and higher.  Also experts have said there was too much liquidity in the system, that no body really cared about risks( even who borrowed – majority opted for flexible rates) and majority of them were speculators rather than investors.  For the entire thing to work, they needed appreciation enough to cover capital, interest and own needs ( read an article about how majority of them saw this as an opportunity to lead a luxurious life). I think whatever be it every thing move in cycles and the sub primers did n’t had enough to withstand even some stagnation.

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by Mathew Cherian, Research Associate/Analyst, Western Michigan University  | 08 27 2009 10:53:27 +0000

Padmanabhan, first of all Ninja loans don't look like Ninjas at all. There is nobody in US without income. They get welfare checks or social security payments if one is unemployed or unemployment pension or insurance payment or old age pension etc; are some of the income stream for marginalised and elderly for those who didn't enroll on a Pension plan when during their working days. The fact is some of them bought homes with available income or even down payment hoping the prices will go up at the required rates so that they can refinance on their home equity which they cash in. Then they use it to start some business and suddenly the home price declines making their plans go haywire and their emi rise above their income which makes them forfeit their homes. If ones equity falls then they will have to cover up for that like margin calls in stock trading. Otherwise they can cash in on rising prices. If lots of noises were made on the rising prices then prices wouldn't have fallen to serious levels it might have stabilised to the levels of economic realities of expansion. It is an adage of economics that asset prices will rise if the economy expands. You cannot keep one down and expect the other to go up which is impartial treatment of citizen. Then when the interest rates rise the prices rise slowly because of the leverage effect. Those who borrow to construct will have to pay higher rates and profit opportunity disappears making the supply rates higher and demand slower and the prices coming down to the equilibrium levels of demand/supply function. This is a much benign state which happens all the time but talking down an economy is something that is unique to Americans which creates panic. In 1989 they talked down the economy. The noise started 2 to 3 years before the recession actualy picked up when the economic fundamentals were normal.

Growth in retail is similar to growth in manufacturing. If manufacturing has to grow then retail sales will have to grow else the inventory levels in factories will rise and layoffs result. There won't be conduit for the manufactured goods to flow out.

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Understanding of the macro economics

idea posted by Sudeep Tarafdar Senior Consultant, IBM

The lessons from the crisis have of course been learnt by investors and creditors largely but more importantly, the understanding of macro economics and the dynamics of world have undergone a drastic  change over the last couple of years. For nation states, the notion that the issuer country of a widely accepted global currency like the US dollar is somehow largely exempt from the normal laws of economics has been demystified according to me.

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Newer Risk management techniques

idea posted by Esha Johar Risk Analyst, Irevna

Another take away from the crisis years is that irrespective of the most rigorous risk management techniques, prudential limits to financial leverage need to be respected even in the case of the mega investment banks that appeared to be exceptions for several years before the crisis hit us, the concept of “too big to fail” has eventually ended up in some cases as “too big to save” resulting in the bankruptcy of some of the largest global investment banks and automobile companies.

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by Padmanabhan R, Articled / Audit assistant, Finance student  | 08 26 2009 19:22:24 +0000

Regarding leverage also we need to be cautious, as interest should be paid irrespective of the financial position. For normally every business follow cycles, and during downturn interest  can become reason to worry. Regarding retail investors, consider those who miss took stock market to return without risk and took loans to invest ( maximum leverage).  

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by Mathew Cherian, Research Associate/Analyst, Western Michigan University  | 08 26 2009 18:13:27 +0000

I think no amount of leverage is too big to be considered risky considering the tools and techniques available now to manage them scientificaly . I believe this whole ecpisode of meltdown in western countries were caused by overzelous and over eager Academia and Journalists. It is hoped that this episode will not jeopardize the advances made in financial theory and economics and will misdirect future research in this field. 

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Thoughtlessly proactive academia and journalists and naming exapansion as bubble

idea posted by Mathew Cherian Research Associate/Analyst, Western Michigan University

When we look back at what happened one feels all these could have been avoided or could have been mitigated if the Academic fraternity who acted thoughtlessly proactive forecasting a disuruption 4 to 5 years before the actual events which I feel trigered the ill-fated price disuruptions in assets which led to defaults which led to bank failures due to credit crunch and market meltdown. I think it is the untimely interferenece of over zelous Journalists who ultimately started the events.

Then again I might sound little radical I feel the Academic researchers calling an expansion of the economy and it's side effects as a bubble is little slopy research. They should have gone little further and and found out the exact reasons and modeled them and probably studied them furhther instead of stoping at an early stage. I feel the name 'bubble' should be completely deleted from economic jargon so that it won't create undesired phsychological effects like panics in the markets and the economy when things look normal.

I also strongly feel calling well trained and skilled people should not be coined greedy without analysing the true nature of events which tantamount to iresponsible and shortsighted manifestation in a world where self imporvement in ones position of course by legal means is considered as a desirable and necesary virtue of economic Agents. 

I also feel the evelutionary theoretical idea of mean reversion much highly talked about now is nothing other than systems taking rest after long periods of work they do which might be even much more benign than coining wrong names and pricking something that is only in ones imagination but may not be a reality and undergoing self inflicted pain and suffering for millions with economic loss everywhre.

 

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Applying Conservating Investment Strategy

idea posted by Ankit Gandhi MBA student, Omegan School of Business

Because of global economic meltdown the good things which we learned a lot like, do not invest  only in stock and design your porfolio in such a manner that it seems to be like only focus on some particular sectors, also focusing your lending process.

 So, After all those loophoales if we considering than the answer is the only on is applying conservative investment strategy.

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What American Investment Professionals learned !

idea posted by Mathew Cherian Research Associate/Analyst, Western Michigan University
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by Veena Gupta, Analyst, Blackstone Group  | 09 10 2009 13:52:23 +0000

Thanks for the link Mathew. It was very helpful to understand their perspective regarding things what they learned. Nice info.

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there is a opportunity in adversity

idea posted by sandesh saboo Research Associate/Analyst, saboo associates

there is always a opportunity in adversity.

it opened up the eyes of so many in government that business is not just about taxing it is about nuturing them.supporting the business.just see americas cash for clunker project.

business is all about employing people.

business needs to be cared and you need to support them to grow create mega plans and plants and keep increasing employment opportunity.

govenrments all over the world realised the importance of business and stability.it is important to manage liquidity,it is important to have good bankrupty laws.

it is important to have timely support by governement if they want to support employment growth.

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We actually learned very litte - because now everything will be okay

idea posted by William (Bill) Smith CEO/MD/Director, Ethical Brand Ltd

We had an over-leveraged and glutonous financial system that walked straight into the arms of an over-zealous media machine that mezmerized the world by confronting us with the prospect of our worst fears being realised; creating the perfect 'buzz' conditions for generating huge audiences that pushed, prodded and cajoled sentiment to a tipping point called 'scenario fulfillment'. Now that the light appears to be visible at the end of the tunnel... many, I suspect too many, will be looking around and back, and saying "hey, that wasn't so bad". We still have, an over-leveraged and glutonous financial system that has learned very little except to make more effort to avoid the media bear-hug in future.  We learned very little about business, but a whole heap of things about human nature.

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Knowledge of Economics

idea posted by Balaji Jeejaba Deshmukh Stenographer (Higher Grade), MAHARASHTRA INDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENT CORPORATION

Dear all,

Everyone must possess knowledge of Economics is a need of human being, which is not yet made compulsory by any Government .

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Lack of affinity to public

idea posted by Balaji Jeejaba Deshmukh Stenographer (Higher Grade), MAHARASHTRA INDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENT CORPORATION

Our government consists of stalwart parliamentarians  and economists, but lack of affinity with people by them is the only cause of failure in today's situation of crisis.

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Human being is responsible

idea posted by Balaji Jeejaba Deshmukh Stenographer (Higher Grade), MAHARASHTRA INDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENT CORPORATION

As human being is well aware of the causes of violation of natural rules, it is solely responsible for the recession which is created by it only.

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Improper use of knowledge

idea posted by Balaji Jeejaba Deshmukh Stenographer (Higher Grade), MAHARASHTRA INDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENT CORPORATION

We must give prime importance to economics in all spere is the only lesson from the Global economic meltdown.

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Life, limit and inevitability

idea posted by Balaji Jeejaba Deshmukh Stenographer (Higher Grade), MAHARASHTRA INDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENT CORPORATION

In the universe every living/non-living thing has a particular life, it has limit and what ever is goving to happen is dependent on nature and is inevitable, therefore rest is subsidiary.

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basic standard procedures to be implemented in lending

idea posted by Chandramouli Sr. Manager - QS & Contracts

Actually the Indian industry is not affected if compared with America and Europe except IT. From America and Europe we should learn how the credit limts to be used. One should learn that, maintain some basic standard procedures to be implemented in money matters (lending) is whatever may be the situation.

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recission

idea posted by abc nothing

Recission the word itself is scary. The lessons are many from global economic meltdown, first and important lesson is spend less save more. second lesson seek proper financial planners advice and plan your financial needs instead getting into wealth management where individuals lost and loosing instead of wealth managing its detorietering. Make the best of available.

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Pure swadeshi industries had never suffered any recession or eco meltdown

idea posted by Syed Naseeruddin Business development Manager, Mavin Switchgears &Control
Global meltdown or recession was nothing for many countries and companies was just to fool the country top brass and get subsidy in the taxes and be relax. Global recession was just i can and proof was the correction in the expenses of the company. As the war of more salary was started in india. with crores packages to CEO OR COO OR MD and etc, taking advantage of this name of "RECESSION" companies started negiotiating salary and kicking off the staff who were less effecient. YOU ALSO REVIEW OR I CAN PROOF.
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control about spending habitis

idea posted by s.kannan Manager - MKTG/CSW/Hr, citilightss properties pvt.ltd
s.kannan
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The System is Fragile

idea posted by JoEtta Advisor/Outside Consultant, 3iAnalysis

The global economic system is fragile because the infrastructure upon which it was built was not designed to shoulder the amount of risk exposure that has come to prevail in the market.

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