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Topic : November Market Outlook
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Investment Hub

 
Started by : Swati Raut, Product Manager, Aviva   11 12 2009 09:05:59 +0000
Industry : Private Banking/Wealth ManagementFunctional Area : Growth(Strategy & Execution)
Activity:  47 views;  last activity : 07 06 2010 20:18:09 +0000

As expected, growth in India was more resilient during the downturn. But in the recovery, while growth is expected to be strong, it will not be as spectacular as in other more cyclical markets. Which will be the factors that will contribute to the growth in the coming quarters? Share your opinions...

 
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1 2 3
1 Monetary policy
2 Fiscal Policy
3 Commodity Price

Monetary policy

idea posted by Veena Gupta Analyst, Blackstone Group

Since September 2008, the RBI has aggressively lowered the repo rate, reverse repo rate and Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR) as well as the SLR by 1% to 24%. It has also eased ECB limits, raised interest rates on NRI deposits, improved access to funds for non-bank financial corporations, lowered the risk weightings for bank lending to commercial real estate companies and reduced provisioning requirements for housing, personal and credit card loans.Given inflation expectations going forward, RBI has been sounding more hawkish of late. I believe that the monetary policies by the RBI will lead the growth.

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I support the argument of the veena gupta in respect of growth over the next quarters. The fact that the inflation expectations going forward, RBI has been soundign more hawkish of late. I beleive that the monetary policies by the RBI will lead the growth.

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Fiscal Policy

idea posted by Swati Raut Product Manager, Aviva

In my opinion the govt.fiscal policy will be one of the important factor which will contribute to the growth. The government’s fiscal action mainly in the form of the farm loan waiver scheme, the public sector pay hikes, fuel and import duty cuts and additional infrastructure spending on roads, ports and utilities, is worth roughly 4% of GDP in 2009

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Commodity Price

idea posted by Rakesh Chakraborty Sr. Associate, ING

Commodity price collapse which has seen the Commodity Research Bureau (CRB) index register its largest y-o-y drop since it began 50 years ago. Being a big commodity importer, this should add about 1.5% points to GDP growth

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