| Topic : Global Warming and Sustainable Development |
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Manufacturing & Engineering Professionals |
Energy Professionals |
International Oil & Gas Professionals Hub |
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last activity : 07 06 2010 20:18:04 +0000
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In a provoking study, a scientist has argued that global warming might just be unstoppable.
According to Tim Garrett, an associate professor of atmospheric sciences, University of Utah, rising carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions - the major cause of global warming - cannot be stabilised unless the world's economy collapses or society builds the equivalent of one new nuclear power plant each day.
It looks unlikely that there will be any substantial near-term departure from recently observed acceleration in carbon dioxide emission rates.
The study, which is based on the concept that physics can be used to characterize the evolution of civilization, indicates that energy conservation or efficiency doesn't really save energy, but instead spurs economic growth and accelerated energy consumption.
Stabilization of carbon dioxide emissions at current rates will require approximately 300 gigawatts of new non-carbon-dioxide-emitting power production capacity annually - approximately one new nuclear power plant (or equivalent) per day," Garrett said. Physically, there are no other options without killing the economy.
Garrett said that his study's key finding is that accumulated economic production over the course of history has been tied to the rate of energy consumption at a global level through a constant factor. That "constant" is 9.7 (plus or minus 0.3) milliwatts per inflation-adjusted 1990 dollar.
So, if you look at economic and energy production at any specific time in history, each inflation-adjusted 1990 dollar would be supported by 9.7 milliwatts of primary energy consumption.
Garrett tested his theory and found this constant relationship between energy use and economic production at any given time by using United Nations statistics for global GDP (gross domestic product), US Department of Energy data on global energy consumption during1970-2005, and previous studies that estimated global economic production as long as 2,000 years ago. Then, he investigated the implications for carbon dioxide emissions. Economists think you need population and standard of living to estimate productivity.
In his model, all you need to know is how fast energy consumption is rising. The reason why is because there is this link between the economy and rates of energy consumption, and it's just a constant factor. By finding this constant factor, the problem of forecasting global economic growth is dramatically simpler. There is no need to consider population growth and changes in standard of living because they are marching to the tune of the availability of energy supplies.
And that means the acceleration of CO2 emissions is unlikely to change soon because our energy use today is tied to society's past economic productivity.
What do you think about this new study from Prof. Garrett? Can Global warming be really stopped? share your thoughts on this.
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Power consumption increases in summer and then we see power crisis. Every time there is power cut we curse govt and wish to have private power connection. Ahmedabad in Gujarat already gets private power suly through Torrent. Should same thing can... |
What is happening is good and a little more safety concerns will make things easy. Why to introduce other distracting factors here? |
We cannot live with power cuts though there is a lot we need to do. Nuclear power is the answer and till when we do not develop an alternative to this we just cannot help it. |
Dear Shikha : Thanks for the referral ... While I don't want to be pessimistic, it needs political will, mass-movement, determined positive action at Government, Corporate/Industry, Society and other levels and I concur with Prakash/Sampanna here ... Look here for a Linked poll: http://www.linkedin.com/osview/canvas?_ch_page_id=1&_ch_panel_id=1&_ch_app_id=17400050&_applicationId=1900&_ownerId=23537691&osUrlHash=enQh&appParams={%22uri%22:%22/polls/detail/40446%22,%22params%22:{%22key%22:%22yjkqm%22}}