India to have a 600 million mobile subscribers very soon

In a matter of time, India's mobile subscriber base will hit and cross a historic 600 million milestone. This suggests that nearly one of every two Indians of any age group, caste, creed, or gender, now owns a mobile device capable of carrying traditional voice calls.

Mobile services were first launched in 1995, making this landmark threshhold the culmination of a 15-year history. In May 2009, the DoT had projected that India would reach 558.9 million subscribers by 2010, so this surpasses official projections. In the same report, the DoT had also projected a mobile subscriber base of 1.01 billion by 2014 and TOI was the first to report these projections on May 26, 2009.

While official figures are yet to be announced by teleom regulator Trai, industry subscriber additions every month for the last couple of years confirm that the 600 million mark will be breached anytime now. By end of March 2010 India already had 584 million mobile subscribers. The month of March alone saw 20.32 million new mobile subscribers added to the subscriber base, yielding a mobile teledensity of 49.6%.

With the mobile teledensity crossing 50% in May, a major public policy objective pursued by various governments has been effectively achieved. This feat is commendable in spite of the fact that the telecom sector has regularly been dogged by allegations of political interference and financial scams, including the latest surrounding the allocation of 2G spectrum in January 2008 by telecom minister A Raja at 2001 prices. The matter was serious enough for the CBI, CVC and CAG to not only launch investigations, but in fact even for the CBI to register FIRs.

The next phase of growth and technology leap is expected to come from the 3G era with service launches lined up towards 2010-end. The 3G auctions, followed by BWA auctions, are expected to pave the way for broadband wireless connectivity, which in spite of India's tremendous feat on mobile voice, has lagged far behind its potential. There are currently 70 million Internet users and less than 10 million broadband users in India.

Many critics argue that the figure of 600 million mobile subscribers is perhaps slightly exaggerated as some subscribers hold multiple sim cards. Despite the scepticism, this milestone reflects the fact that the Indian industry has succeeded against all kinds of odds including regular controversies around spectrum allocation, political highhandedness and a tough tax regime which is one of the highest anywhere in the world.


So, how do you see Indian telecom heading from here, can they achieve the number of more than a billion by 2014?

What are your thoughts on this people?