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Industry : Asset Management Functional Area : Performance
Activity:  6 comments  644 views  last activity : 07 06 2010 20:18:04 +0000
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Bond yields are depicted on a curve called the Yield curve. It is an upward sloping curve in normal time of the economy. The following table gives the yield curve on a typical time of the economy.

 

Period                                  Yield

3months                                3%

6months                                6.5%

1 year                                    12%         and so on till 35 years

 

Now we see an investment opportunity in the 6 months bond. If one buys the 6 months bonds in 3 months time the 6 months bond will drop in yield to 6% and the price of the bond will go up giving the Investor a gain. This is called ‘riding the Yield curve” by so doing one can lock into the gains which is the price appreciation due to drop in yield of the bond.

This happens from the general fact that ‘short term rates are a good indication of the long term rates’

This can be driven throughout the yield curve wherever there is a discrepancy.

A yield curve is usually upward sloping but if at any point in time it inverts to downward sloping meaning the short term rates higher than long term rates then we get the ‘inverted yield curve’ phenomenon which is a leading indicator of an imminent Recession, where one see the expectations of the market shifting.

Yield of a bond = current yield + capital gains yield

Current yield = interest on bond/ Price of the bond..

 Top Comment : Padmanabhan R   | 09 07 2009 07:45:49 +0000
Excellent work thanks Mathew sir keep posting like stuff, Yes, riding the yield curve is employed to make capital gains by using the yield curve, taking advantage of the direct relationship between yield and maturity. Instead of buying and holding a short maturity security a longer maturity one is bought and sold accordingly. The downside is interest rate risk, as especially the maturity is higher and they make better returns only when the long term rates are higher than short term rates.
 
6 comments on "Riding the Yield Curve"
  Commented by  Mathew Cherian, Research Associate/Analyst, Western Michigan University    | 09 11 2009 07:42:12 +0000
The interest rate rate spread between bid and ask for bonds is directly connected to the commodity prices. When the commodity prices move up the bid is narrowed and ask increased.
  Commented by  Mathew Cherian, Research Associate/Analyst, Western Michigan University    | 09 08 2009 18:03:04 +0000
Padmanabhan, the value of the bond can fluctuate in two different ways. When the demand for the bond goes up it naturally pulls down it's yield because as the number of investors seeking a pariticular bond goes up the trader can keep raising the price of the bond. This probably. happen in some markets.
In some cases they raise the retail interest rates as the demand rise which happens in interest rate options like a raise for each trade will be in the units of 1 "tick" and a tick is 1/8th of a basis point or 4/32 ie; 4 "seconds" makes one tick.

  Commented by  Mathew Cherian, Research Associate/Analyst, Western Michigan University    | 09 08 2009 13:38:54 +0000
Rating : +1 
Thanks all, I shall also give the method of valuation of bonds.
If a bond 15%, 10year maturity then the present value of the bond is = 15/(1+0.15)+15/(1+0.15)^2+......+15/(1+0.15)^15. If the rate changes from 15 to 14 then the value of the bond changes which is got as above changing 0.15 to 0.14 in the denominator. This is for normal bonds.
  Commented by  Padmanabhan R, Finance student    | 09 07 2009 07:45:49 +0000
Rating : +1 
Excellent  work thanks Mathew sir keep posting like stuff,
Yes, riding the yield curve is employed to make capital gains by using the yield curve, taking advantage of the direct relationship between yield and maturity. Instead of buying and holding a short maturity security a longer maturity one is bought and sold accordingly. The downside is interest rate risk, as especially the maturity is higher and they make better returns only when the long term rates are higher than short term rates.
  Commented by  Charles davison, Project Manager, Douglas OHI LLc oman    | 09 07 2009 07:24:59 +0000
 Mathew,Very interesting GK. Thanks for sharing.
  Commented by  Jyoti Rath, Sr. Associate, Barclays    | 09 07 2009 04:59:21 +0000
Rating : +2 
Nice article Mr. Mathew, really very informative. Thanks for sharing...
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