Build your professional network on facebook via our app Go to app
 
 
Posted in Community :

Aap Ki Awaaz

 
By : Danish khan, Business Analyst, cognizant business consultancy
Functional Area : Performance
Activity:  10 comments  502 views  last activity : 03 19 2011 15:56:21 +0000
 Refer 924
Share
 
 
 

An interesting public debate has started between two economists, Paul Krugman and Raghuram Rajan. The debate being that Krugman wants the interest rates to be kept low whereas Rajan wants them to be raised gradually.

Both Krugman and Rajan are economists of international repute. Rajan was the former chief economist of the Internal Monetary Fund and is currently a professor of economics at the University of Chicago. A native of Bhopal, India, Rajan has a doctorate in economics Massachusetts Institute of Technology and has authored the book Saving Capitalism from the Capitalists.

Krugman is a Nobel Laureate (2008) and currently a professor of economics at Princeton University. An op-ed columnist and a blogger for the New York Times and the author of numerous books, Kurgman’s biggest contribution is making geography relevant to economics again, and explaining the topic without any jargon so that the layperson could follow the economic debate.

So why is that two very brilliant economists have such divergent views about interest rates? There are numerous explanations for this academic fissure in opinions.  Rajan belongs to the Chicago school of economics, which has favoured lower taxes and less regulation of the private sector. It also supports efficient market hypothesis, which posits that the financial markets have all the information they need to make decisions. Until the 2008 recession, this hypothesis was considered as real as the law of gravity.  However, the recent recession has put some serious dents in this hypothesis.

Krugman is a Keynesian and believes that private sector may not have the perfect information all the time and it may lead to inefficient macroeconomic outcomes. The recent recession, which was brought about primarily by greed where unsecured housing loans were morphed into complex financial derivatives that were sold the world over, suggests that those who bought these products and those who declared these derivatives to be investment grade had no clue of the risks they were taking.

Keynesians argue for more involved government oversight and they also favour lower interest rates in times of recession to encourage businesses to borrow funds at cheaper prices to grow their businesses and create jobs.

Despite their divergent academic roots, their difference in opinion is not merely academic, but cultural as well. Rajan is rooted strictly in the scholastic culture in which an academic usually resides in an isolated intellectual universe and is seldom voted out of the job for offering the wrong advice. Therefore, Rajan advocates raising interest rates without waiting first for the unemployment to decline.

Krugman, on the other hand, is not just an economist, but also a popular columnist and an avid blogger. He is also a political animal and realises that in a very interdependent society, interest rates would impact unemployment, which would eventually determine the electoral outcomes. He knows well that in the past an increase in the interest rates followed an increase in unemployment rates in the United States. Raising interest rates now, when the unemployment is already in double digits in the United States, would have the same lagged effect a couple of years down the road.

 Top Comment : Amit Madhav   | 02 28 2011 11:26:40 +0000
I support the views of Krugman, it is pointless to increase interest rates when already the situation is so bad.. What I too don't understand is if interest rates are increased who will be benefited..
 
10 comments on "Who benefits by higher interest rates?"
  Commented by  Jaygopal Raghavan, Marketing Manager, Landmark Group    | 03 19 2011 15:56:21 +0000
A very interesting read ! Thanks for this referal. Interesting to note that such senior economist also have divergent views. 
With my limited knowledge of financial markets and common sense thought, i would go for Krugman because apart from increasing inflation with higher interest rates, a lower rate would only aid in more unemployed turning into entreprenuers. 
I am with Amit in not understanding the benefit in increasing interest rates. Even financial institutions wouldnt benefit because the number of people borrowing would drastically come down because of the high rates.
  Commented by  NATTERAJA R. ARIKRISHNAN, AREA SALES MANGER, UNIFLEX CABLES LTD    | 03 15 2011 17:49:50 +0000
Thanks for the referral Mr.Amit.
  Commented by  Onkar Datt Sharma, Manager (Technical), Retired    | 03 01 2011 10:22:05 +0000
What about the retired senior citizens who survive only on interest against their savings i.e. more interest more income to them less interest less fund availability of money which will become for them to meet two ends.
  Commented by  Syed Shakeel Ahmed, Electrical Design Engineer, Thermosystems Pvt Ltd    | 03 01 2011 04:19:27 +0000
There should be no concept of interest at all.
  Commented by  Raju V P, Head - Information Systems, Finance and Planning, Arab National Bank    | 02 28 2011 15:40:09 +0000
If interest rates are raised, the loan eligibility will go down.  So for a given level of income, the quantum of loan will be less.  And the investment is mostly decided by payback period, rate of return and other financial measures.  At a higher interest rate, the investor will take only the top projects and leave out the lower return earning projects due to the credit crunch.  Now the question is "Is it beneficial?".  Yes. It is beneficial to curb the speculative tendencies.  Assume that I am getting easy loans at 0.5% interest. What I would do is, I will buy 10,0000 tonnes of wheat and hoard it.  Result - wheat scarcity (aka the onion scarcity which happened recently).  Suppose the interest rate is 10%.  I will not hoard the what since the return which I will earn will not be so attractive.

So is it wrong to say that higher interest rates will benefit the common man?  The common man, as it is, cannot get loans.  He is not affected by higher interest rates.  But the rich men will be affected and will not go into speculation.

And that is precisely what Raghuram is saying.  If there is plenty of cheap money, you will have plenty of bubbles - like the housing bubble.  You will also plenty of artificial scarcities - like the recent onion scarcity (dont tell me that it is on account of the Govt's policy to allow onions to be exported.  It is bullshit).
  Commented by  Rathin Deb, Business Alliances Manager, Tower group of companies    | 02 28 2011 14:28:57 +0000
Thanks Amit for referral. A good article.
  Commented by  KALIYAMOORTHY, Oil & Gas Area Coordinator, Undisclosed    | 02 28 2011 13:42:40 +0000
Naturally, one who can multiply the capital with high interest rate , to be more profitable. Even, guys who do not get low interest rate money , will also be forced to go for high interest rate.

It is the necessity that decides and drives one to borrow money either at higher interest or lower interest rate. If a businessman feels an investment at a particular moment can turn out to be a very lucrative for the venture, he will certainly calculate the benefit and go for high investment.

No doubt, lower interest is liked by everybody. But, not all get it for investment. For domestic purpose interest rates are low and for commercial venture, it is always high. Financial risk calculation plays a vital role.

I heard in US, guys are ready to get CREDIT CARD with 75% interest & are there numerous companies doing such business.

Thanks Amit
  Commented by  Atul Kumar, Project Leader    | 02 28 2011 12:42:08 +0000
Good article. Thanks for sharing.
  Commented by  SHRIKANT MANOHAR DANKE, Consultant, Project Management Consultancy Firm    | 02 28 2011 12:36:17 +0000
I support your views, Amit.
& thanks for posting it on Toostep,Danish.
  Commented by  Amit Madhav, Senior Consultant, GKC    | 02 28 2011 11:26:40 +0000
Rating : +1 
I support the views of Krugman, it is pointless to increase interest rates when already the situation is so bad.. What I too don't understand is if interest rates are increased who will be benefited.. 
Add your comment on "Who benefits by higher interest rates?"

Rate:
Submit
Leading Recruitment Firm
  • Create a confidential Career Profile and Resume/C.V. online
  • Get advice for planning their career and for marketing of experience and skills
  • Maximize awareness of and access to the best career opportunities
Viewers also viewed
Does higher education really adds to your professional life?
 
17 referals 23 arguments, 1355 views
The world is becoming more and more competitive. The competition starts right from the nursery...
 
2631 referals 30 votes, 1773 views
I mean we all know about the foreign universities are entering Indian soil slowly but surely...
 
402 referals 40 arguments, 832 views
more...  
Recent Knowledge (20)
What could be the size of Indian Switch market ( Low Voltage)
4 referals 15 comments, 526 views
  Neural networks in financial engineering Neural networks have shown considerable successes in...
 
11 referals 2 comments, 319 views
Dear All,    A woman (65) was diabetic for the last 2+ years and was taking insulin twice a day,...
1 referals 1 comments, 787 views
more...  
More From Author
Nice article...Thanks for sahring here There are a lot of management lessons that we can learn from our epics.
Nice article..Thanks for sharing. It is very true in today's environment when politicians are trying to create hate among us. we all are Indians first before belonging to any region, religion and caste.
Thanks a lot for sharing....great motivational article
more...