How far will delayed monsoon affect sensex?

Delayed monsoon might create a scarcity for commodity and the prices can shoot up. Then the government can intervene and import the deficit so that the prices won't rise. This is for planned environments like ours. In free market environments anticipating rise in prices of commodities sometimes investments will be switched into it creating downward movements in othe investment vehicles. Then things will get corrected when the deficits are normalised by imports or when the particular situation eases.

It's just a sentiment and won't have a longer effect on the sensex.

hi esha,

every year around this time monsoon fever catches on the market,since last so many years since i have been observing the market may be 25 years.every year we get this customery reports from monsoon department or met dept,one would be low rainfall and the other would be we are doing the catching up kinds.and somehow we manage to be in and around the average figures for the last ten years.we had good rainfall.

it is observed that the sunaami has  effected some cycles..monsoon is delayed.

yep it must be having a effect,we have come a long way since my student days when our economy was depended on agriculture and 70 percent of our gdp was agricultural related thankfully we are just 17% of our gdp comes from agriculture.

so every year we do have monsoon fever in the market and the temperature in the market comes down and goes up.

this year during this time we are having heavy fii selling and they are seling at an average 500 crore plus during last 10 days fortunately our domestic institutions are buyers.if our institution would not be supporting th emarket it would have been another crash.

today fii sold nearly 1500 crores of shares.yesterday it was more then 600 crores.in 10 days they have sold over 6000 crores of shares.this was absorb by our domestic institutions.and lic is saying it wants to invest 50000 crores this year.

our investors have been net sellers in the past few months we have not found investors rushing back in to the market.they are still happy with nsc,fixed deposits.banks are showing huge increase in deposits.and they have not been lending.

recently some banks have started funding against shares.last three months were some sought of a steep increase in prices.there would be some time correction and some price correction.we have reached to above the comfort zone in a few counters when it comes to prizing..there was too fast a correction.too soon..

sandesh

Dear Esha,

I agree to you that one of the reason of the markets being nervous are because of the monsoon and other reason is budget.

We all know that India is still a agriculture country and our exonomy depends a lot on the rain. If the monsoon is delayed or not good it is surely going to affect the commodity prices and the stock markets....